Taiwan’s ‘nightmare scenario’: Think tank weighs post-2020 contingencies

Special to WorldTribune.com

By Geostrategy-Direct

China is preparing for an invasion of Taiwan “from a 360 degree perspective” which includes a “Fifth Column” of pro-China supporters living on the self-ruled island who would back a Chinese invasion force in the post-2020 timeframe, analysts say.

“It is thinkable if you think about the specific situation of a quick lightning strike on the Taipei Port [Bali District] to establish a beachhead,” said Richard Armitage, board chairman of the Washington-based think tank Project 2049 Institute.

Chinese forces simulating an invasion of Taiwan during military exercises. / Getty Images

“What we are talking about is uncomfortable, unpleasant, and is a nightmare scenario, but we’ve got to think this way and we have to come up with responses,” Armitage said, according to a report on the conference by National Interest.

Taiwan military planners now have to look at the China threat from a 360 degree perspective, not just looking west across the Taiwan Strait, Armitage said.

Additionally, Armitage said, China might not have amphibious craft, but they have roll-on/roll-off, so no longer is an amphibious invasion assault on Taiwan unthinkable.

Armitage, deputy secretary of state in the George W. Bush administration, made the comments during a recent think tank-sponsored event titled “The Nightmare Scenario : The PLA Invasion Threat and Taiwan’s Response”.

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