Polls: Republicans running strong in Democrat strongholds

by WorldTribune Staff, October 17, 2022

Republicans continue to build momentum as new polling shows the GOP with a solid chance of taking both the House and Senate in the November midterms.

According to a New York Times/Siena College survey released Monday, 49% of likely voters indicated they would vote for a GOP congressional candidate compared to 45% who planned on voting Democrat. The 44% of likely voters in the poll who said the economy was the most important issue planned by a two-to-one margin to vote for GOP candidates.

Meanwhile, the latest RealClearPolitics poll for the Senate shows the GOP with a 52-48 majority after the midterms.

Recent polling also shows Republicans in Democrat strongholds gaining ground on vulnerable opponents.

New York governor

Analysts at RealClearPolitics have moved New York’s gubernatorial race from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss-up” roughly three weeks before the election between incumbent Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican Lee Zeldin.

Zeldin has challenged Hochul to as many as five debates ahead of the general election on Nov. 8. The two have still yet to agree on any.

Zeldin has picked up the endorsement of New Era Democrats. “We have a Democratic machine that has gone far too left – too extreme for even those moderate Democrats,” John Orlando, president of the New Era Democrats, said. “Lee is my candidate. He’s against crime. Hochul’s for crime. She refused to make any major changes to the bail law.”

Washington U.S. Senate

Republican Tiffany Smiley is within striking distance of pulling off an upset against longtime Democrat Sen. Patty Murray.

A September Trafalgar poll had Murray at 48.7% and Smiley at 46.5%.

Smiley is a mother of three and former triage nurse. Murray was first elected to the Senate in 1992.

“Not invariably, but more than rarely, one senatorial election in a cycle produces a ‘who-saw-that coming?’ reaction from people who forgot to look far and wide. This year, it could be here,” George Will wrote in a Friday column in The Washington Post.

Smiley has picked up the endorsement of the Washington State Fraternal Order of Police and the released a series of ads featuring former Murray voters explaining why they will be casting their ballots for Smiley.

Oregon governor

Republican Christine Drazan is in position to be the first GOP governor in Oregon since Vic Atiyeh in 1982.

Drazan, the former minority leader of the Oregon House of Representatives, is running neck and neck with Democrat Tina Kotek, the former longtime speaker of the state House. FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm forecast views the race as a toss-up with Drazan holding a narrow 34 percent to 33 percent advantage over Kotek with independent Betsy Johnson, a former state legislator who served for nearly two decades as a Democrat, attracting about 20 percent.

Kotek, who is closely linked to unpopular term-limited Democrat Gov. Kate Brown, is viewed unfavorably by 50 percent of voters, including 55 percent of independents, a recent Emerson poll found.

Connecticut U.S. Senate

GOP candidate Leora Levy is closing the gap and is nearly tied with incumbent Democrat Sen. Richard “Da Nang Dick” Blumenthal, according to the Connecticut Examiner’s latest poll.

The poll found that Blumenthal at 49& and Levy at 44%. An additional seven percent of Connecticut voters remain undecided.

“It took until mid-October, but finally a public survey reflects the reality of this race: Leora Levy is in a margin-of-error, neck-and-neck race with Dick Blumenthal, a career politician with a thirty-seven-year head start. Dick Blumenthal is under 50 percent despite spending more than $5.3 million dollars on advertising since the middle of June,” Levy’s campaign noted.

Democrats like Blumenthal are being dragged down by Team Biden’s disastrous economic agenda, according to Wesleyan University professor Logan Dancey: “Inflation and general pessimism about the state of the economy creates some real headwinds for Democrats, and that extends into a state like Connecticut.”

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