‘It defies the odds’: Analysts question Arizona election results

by WorldTribune Staff, December 9, 2022

A data analysis of the 2022 midterm elections found that Republican candidates in Arizona, outside of the top four Trump-endorsed races, “performed incredibly well.”

Analytics 805 reported that it discovered that Republican candidates outside of those four races, which include the governor’s race between Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs, performed as well or better than expected considering there are 4 percent more Republicans than Democrats in the state (including Maricopa County).

“We took the Arizona election numbers and made this chart, to visually show the improbability of Kari Lake losing, while the entire state of Arizona voted Republican for the State Senate and U.S. House races. We saw 14 percent more support for Republicans than Democrats in the State Senate races. So it makes no sense to think those Republicans suddenly flipped to Democrat Katie Hobbs for governor by this large of a margin,” Analytics 805 founder Thomas Cole told The Arizona Sun Times.

The four Trump-endorsed races were:

• The numbers from the Secretary of State’s website showed a 17,000 vote difference in the gubernatorial race, 1,287,890 for Hobbs versus 1,270,774 for Lake. That is a .33 percent difference.

• In the Attorney General’s race, there is only about a 500 vote difference, 1,254,613 to 1,254,102.

• In the Secretary of State’s race, the spread was about 120,000 votes apart, 1,320,628 versus 1,200,411, a 5 percent difference.

• In the U.S. Senate race, 126,000 votes separated the two, 1,322,026 to 1,196,308, also a 5 percent difference.

In contrast, Republicans won by large margins in other Arizona races. Incumbent State Treasurer Kimberly Yee, who was not endorsed by Donald Trump and who ran a relatively low-profile office, received about 283,000 more votes than her challenger, 1,390,135 to 1,107,036, which is a significant 11 percent difference.

In the nine U.S. House races in Arizona, Republicans received about 320,000 more votes than Democrats, 1,324,961 to 1,004,461. That comes down to 56.87 percent versus 43.12 percent. In the State Senate races, Republicans received about 250,000 more votes than Democrats, 1,254,632 to 1,038,497. That breaks down to a significant difference between parties of around 14 percent.

“Does anyone really believe that voters preferred GOP State Senate candidates with a 14 percent advantage, yet swung back dramatically to favor Democrats by up to 5 percent margins in four other races?” Cole said. “It defies the odds. I can understand a few percentage points difference, but around one-third of voters voting Democrat in some races but Republican in others makes no sense, the margins are too grossly different.”

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