Special to WorldTribune, July 21, 2020
By Frank Luber
There are a lot of Donald Trump supporters today who are becoming more anxious about polls showing their candidate behind Joe Biden in the race for the Presidency by as much as 15 points.
What most polls don’t reflect is that people sampled are from a pool of “registered” voters and NOT “likely” voters. In some cases, pollsters sample just “adults” with no reference to whether they are registered or likely to vote. Even more suspect are polls that over-sample Democrats in numbers not consistent with the percentage of Democrats and Republicans in the country.
The only reliable poll today, in my opinion, is “Rasmussen Reports”, arguably the “Gold Standard” of pollsters.
Rasmussen now has Trump trailing Biden by only Three (3) points…. no where close to double digits.
Rasmussen’s latest poll indicates voters are twice as likely to think Joe Biden will raise their taxes than President Trump will. Biden doesn’t hide the fact that his socialist agenda is going to cost taxpayers nearly $4 trillion over the next ten years. While Trump’s has already cut taxes for corporations, small businesses, blue collar workers and the middle class and wants even further tax cuts. So, on that issue alone, Trump should be a clear-cut winner. But, there’s more … lots more.
Rasmussen’s Weekly Immigration Index suggests voters are comfortable with the immigration restrictions President Trump has put in place since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. And, it’s the President’s overall policies on immigration that’s being embraced by what many thought heretofore would be an unlikely source that will be “Trump’s Blueprint for Victory in November.”
Who would have through this just several months ago. According to former pollster and political campaign consultant Dick Morris, recent polls show 36 percent of Hispanics favor Trump compared to the 29 percent he garnered in 2016.
That figure is likely to climb much higher when Trump soon issues his Executive Order creating a path to citizenship for the 800,000 or so DACA recipients, or “Dreamers”, as they are called. The White House says it won’t be amnesty but more than likely will include certain contingencies.
It will be difficult for Democrats to oppose or make it an issue in an election year, since it’s not linked to building a southern border wall, without alienating Hispanic voters further.
It’s now appearing Hispanic voters will be a key factor for Trump in the battleground states with large Latino populations. Add to that, Dick Morris reports 14 percent of African-Americans recently polled favored Trump as opposed to the 8 percent who voted for him four years ago.
With perhaps 36 percent of Hispanic voters already in Trump’s corner and more expected if he cuts the “Dreamers” a break, why not think “BIGLY’.
There are various estimates of anywhere between 12 and 30 million illegal aliens in this country, most of them Hispanics or Latinos. They are already part of the nation’s economy and society and for the most part are conservative, hard, dedicated workers, law-abiding, religious and family-structured. Of course, you would have to cleanse their ranks, through deportation, of gang members and those who have committed serious crimes while here illegally. To think we are going to deport all 30 million is pure folly.
Conservatives may put up strong arguments against anything short of deporting the millions of illegals but what if Trump also created a path of citizenship for them as well as the “Dreamers”? Then shut down the border once and for all and allow into the country only those who go through the legal immigration process.
If I’m Trump and I’m aware of that 36 percent of Hispanics who now favor me, I’ve got to look at how much more that could be if I extended an olive branch to the millions of other Hispanics and Latinos here in limbo. That kind of thinking could create not only “Blueprint for a Trump victory this November” but a strategy to keep the White House in Republican hands for decades. Talk about a potential legacy.
Frank Luber is a broadcast journalist who has spent more than 60-years informing Marylanders of current events via radio and television. After starting his radio career in Annapolis he worked for WCAO Radio and WJZ TV. Last year he completed 31 years as a Talk Show Host and News Anchor on WCBM Radio in Baltimore.