Analysis: Outflanked by Iran and checked by U.S., Israel is not winning

FPI / November 17, 2023

Geostrategy-Direct

Over the past five weeks, the 10 million residents of Israel have been bombarded with rockets — and disinformation, an analyst wrote.

An Israeli air strike on the outskirts of Gaza City.

While Iran’s “hybrid warfare” of international diplomacy, strategic alliances and terror proxies has outflanked Israel’s military, the Biden administration has pushed for restraint. While in the court of world opinion Hamas can kill civilians with relative impunity, Israel cannot.

Israel is not winning the war, analyst and veteran Israel-based journalist Steve Rodan noted in a Nov. 14 Substack.com analysis.

“To turn this around, Israel must separate from the naysayers in the West, particularly the United States, which wants Israel to swallow its losses and agree to far-reaching concessions that will make Iran much stronger in the Gaza Strip and the region,” Rodan wrote.

“Any Israeli strategy must be based on its strengths — overwhelming firepower, high morale, a dedicated and intelligent people and the capability to rapidly learn from mistakes.”

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claimed in a Nov. 13 statement that. “Hamas has suffered significant damage to its command structures, combat capabilities and intelligence resources.”

But Rodan noted that “Israel is not winning the war against Hamas in the south and certainly not against Hizbullah in the north. After an ineffective air campaign in the Gaza Strip, Israel now depends on an untrained army that faces an unconventional and smart enemy. The army has never engaged in sustained urban warfare.”

Hamas and Iran’s other terror proxy in Gaza, Islamic Jihad, control everything underneath Gaza and Israel’s humanitarian concerns are preventing it from using what could be its most effective option, flooding the terror tunnels, Rodan added.

“The Israeli policy of evacuating civilians has played into the hands of Hamas and Islamic Jihad,” Rodan wrote. “Without civilians, the chances of real-time tactical intelligence are small. There is nobody who can tell you where the fighters are hiding or what is booby-trapped or where the tunnel openings are located.”

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