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Wednesday, November 12, 2008

AEI: U.S. needs bases throughout Mideast, Central Asia to protect Gulf from Iran

WASHINGTON — Bahrain and Qatar could rapidly fall in a Gulf War and the U.S. military requires bases in most Gulf Arab states as well as in Central Asia to counter Iran's growing military and emerging nuclear threat, a report said.

The American Enterprise Institute said in a report that any U.S. effort to contain Iran would require an American military presence in Gulf Cooperation Council states as well as Afghanistan, Iraq, Turkey and Central Asian countries.

The report, authored by resident scholar and former Bush administration official Michael Rubin, said the United States and its allies must also enhance their military capability to block any Iranian nuclear offensive and its expanded influence over its oil-rich neighbors.

"If U.S. forces are to contain the Islamic republic, they will require basing not only in GCC countries, but also in Afghanistan, Iraq, Central Asia, and the Caucasus," the report titled "Can a Nuclear Iran be Contained or Deterred?" said.

"Without a sizeable regional presence, the Pentagon will not be able to maintain the predeployed resources and equipment necessary to contain Iran, and Washington will signal its lack of commitment to every ally in the region. Because containment is as much psychological as physical, basing will be its backbone."

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The report, which envisioned the rapid Iranian seizure of Bahrain and Qatar, said the U.S. military was hurt when it lost facilities in Uzbekistan. The U.S. Air Force has maintained bases in Afghanistan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Turkey and the Indian Ocean atoll of Diego Garcia.

But Rubin said several of these countries could deny the use of their territory for a U.S. strike on Iran. Turkey, for example, was said to have grown closer to Teheran and has demanded the right to veto any U.S. mission from its air force base in Incirlik.

"Oman, too, has been less than reliable in granting U.S. freedom of operation," the report said. "According to military officials familiar with the negotiations between U.S. and Omani officials, the sultanate initially refused the U.S. Air Force permission to fly missions over Afghanistan from its territory in the opening days of Operation Enduring Freedom in 2001, a campaign that, in the wake of 9/11, had far greater international support than would any containment actions against Iranian forces."

Kuwait, the report said, has stressed that it would not a host a permanent U.S. presence. The report said Kuwait has held up U.S. requests to pave a road in Camp Arifjan, the key base of the U.S. Army.

"The U.S. [Navy's] 5th Fleet uses facilities in Bahrain and ports in the United Arab Emirates," the report said. "Both countries, however, remain vulnerable to Iranian missiles and airstrikes."

The outgoing Bush administration has sought to upgrade GCC military capability through a 2006 progam titled "Gulf Security Dialogue." Over the last year, the administration has approved the sale of search and rescue helicopters to Bahrain as well as air transports, air and ground weapons and missile defense systems to Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

"Even with such upgrades, and assuming Congress does not disapprove the sales — 188 members of Congress have expressed concern — it is unclear whether the GCC states could contain Iranian aggression for long," the report said. "No GCC state with the exception of Saudi Arabia has strategic depth. If Iraq could overwhelm Kuwait in a matter of hours, so, too, could Iran overwhelm Bahrain — the central node in regional U.S. naval strategy — or Qatar, where the U.S. army pre-positions much of its heavy equipment."


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