The report, which envisioned the rapid Iranian seizure of Bahrain and
Qatar, said the U.S. military was hurt when it lost facilities in
Uzbekistan. The U.S. Air Force has maintained bases in Afghanistan, Bahrain,
Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Turkey and the Indian Ocean atoll of Diego Garcia.
But Rubin said several of these countries could deny the use of their
territory for a U.S. strike on Iran. Turkey, for example, was said to have
grown closer to Teheran and has demanded the right to veto any U.S. mission
from its air force base in Incirlik.
"Oman, too, has been less than reliable in granting U.S. freedom of
operation," the report said. "According to military officials familiar with
the negotiations between U.S. and Omani officials, the sultanate initially
refused the U.S. Air Force permission to fly missions over Afghanistan from
its territory in the opening days of Operation Enduring Freedom in 2001, a
campaign that, in the wake of 9/11, had far greater international support
than would any containment actions against Iranian forces."
Kuwait, the report said, has stressed that it would not a host a
permanent U.S. presence. The report said Kuwait has held up U.S. requests to
pave a road in Camp Arifjan, the key base of the U.S. Army.
"The U.S. [Navy's] 5th Fleet uses facilities in Bahrain and ports in the
United Arab Emirates," the report said. "Both countries, however, remain
vulnerable to Iranian missiles and airstrikes."
The outgoing Bush administration has sought to upgrade GCC military
capability through a 2006 progam titled "Gulf Security Dialogue." Over the
last year, the administration has approved the sale of search and rescue
helicopters to Bahrain as well as air transports, air and ground weapons and
missile defense systems to Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
"Even with such upgrades, and assuming Congress does not disapprove the
sales — 188 members of Congress have expressed concern — it is unclear
whether the GCC states could contain Iranian aggression for long," the
report said. "No GCC state with the exception of Saudi Arabia has strategic
depth. If Iraq could overwhelm Kuwait in a matter of hours, so, too, could
Iran overwhelm Bahrain — the central node in regional U.S. naval
strategy — or Qatar, where the U.S. army pre-positions much of its heavy
equipment."