The report, commissioned by Defense Secretary Robert Gates, deemed the
Iraqi Special Operations Forces as "well trained, disciplined, and capable."
But the Interior Ministry's Facility Protection Service was described as
ill-trained and -equipped.
Rand said the Iraq Air Force and Navy remained marginal in security
efforts. The report said the air force was not expected to become a credible
deterrent unless it acquired and operated advanced fighter-jets.
"The Iraqi Air Force is in its infancy and will not be a major factor
with respect to security and stability in the near future, though plans to
build an air force with ground-strike capabilities could increase Kurdish
anxiety and affect Arab-Kurdish relations," the report said. "Iraq's navy is
also small and growing but currently helps secure Iraq's oil terminals. It
should be capable of defending these by 2012."
The Iraq Army has also been deemed as unbalanced. The report said the
army still lacks artillery, aircraft or air defense systems.
The Iraqi military plans to accelerate procurement over the next two
years. The report cited expectations of ordering the F-16 multi-role fighter
and the M1A1 Abrams main battle tank, two platforms that have alarmed the
autonomous Kurdish zone in the north.
"This creates a tension and risk that the United States must try to
mitigate during and after withdrawal," the report said. "This raises the
general problem of a declining U.S. ability, because of the
withdrawal of its forces, to play the role of honest broker among the main
groups in Iraq at the very time that the role is becoming, if anything, more
crucial. Between Kurds and Arabs in particular, there is no substitute for a
third party trusted by both that can remain for a relatively long time."
