"The Mujahedeen Khalq and the National Council of the Resistance of Iran
are the most powerful organizations, increasingly gaining popularity as
their regime-change agenda is being adopted by the Iranian street," Tanter
told the Middle East Forum on March 10.
[On March 30, an Iranian nuclear scientist was said to have defected to
the United States after a pilgrimage from Saudi Arabia. Shahram Amiri,
missing since June 2010, was reported by ABC News to have provided U.S.
intelligence with data on Iran's nuclear program.]
Tanter, an instructor on weapons proliferation and insurgency at
Georgetown University, has lobbied a series of administrations to support
the Iranian opposition, including the removal of Mujahadeen from the State
Department's list of terrorist groups. He said the administration of
President Barack Obama passed up on a chance to overthrow the mullah regime
in Teheran over the last year.
"If U.S. policy led rather than followed the Iranian street, the
situation in Iran could be comparable to 1979: As in the revolution of 1979,
Iranians again want regime change and today's opposition is inclusive,
whereas the 1999 and 2003 protests lacked the broad coalition present in
1979," Tanter said. "Today's street protests need to hear more from the
United States to broaden the coalition."
Tanter called Iran's presidential elections in June 2009 a watershed.
He said the elections, accused of being fraudulent, led to the splitting of
the Iranian opposition to the regime of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
One element comprised what Tanter termed the loyal opposition and
consisted of senior clerics and former presidents such as Mohammed Khatami,
Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mir Hussein Musavi. The other part consisted of what Tanter
termed the "disloyal opposition," which has sought regime change.
"The more organized the Iranian street, the greater the chances of a
revolution like that of 1979 against the current regime," Tanter said.
Tanter said Obama has rejected regime change in Teheran, rather opting
for a policy that was somewhere between engagement and containment. He said
regime change marked a more feasible option than forcing Iran to abandon
its nuclear program.
"Even as the administration believes that tough sanctions could bring
about regime change, it downplays the organized opposition in favor of talks
with the regime," Tanter said.
Tanter dismissed the need for a U.S. invasion of Iran as that which took
place against Iraq in 2003. He said Washington could provide what he termed
rhetorical and covert support to the Iranian opposition movement.
