"In one possible scenario, the regime will collapse from the inside,"
the report, titled "Is the Iranian Regime Collapsing?" said. "Changes to the
system of subsidies can only add to Ahmadinejad's unpopularity. In this
context, international pressure and sanctions on Iran will very much
influence the continuation of the struggle against the regime."
In 2009, Amir, former director of Israel Radio's Farsi service,
presented a five-point plan to the Canadian Foreign Ministry designed to topple the
Iranian regime. Amir said the plan requires both military and financial
pressure on Teheran in an effort to halt its nuclear program.
"Widen international sanctions that will paralyze the Iranian economy in
the same manner as Gadhafi's Libya," the report said.
Other measures proposed by Amir included funding the Iranian opposition
to launch labor strikes and massive demonstrations as well as rally Iranian
exiles and ethnic minorities against the regime. Amir also urged a Western
military buildup, particularly of the navy, in the Gulf region.
"Create a very real military threat by concentrating naval forces in the
Persian Gulf and voicing threats of war at the Iranian regime," the report
said.
Amir, who now works for the Israeli Foreign Ministry, said regime
figures, particularly Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi, have turned
against the Teheran regime. He said the Iranian leadership has become split
over whether to enact democratic reforms.
Amir outlined a scenario in which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
would seize power in Teheran. He said IRGC commanders have already taken
over the economy and marginalized the ruling clerics.
"Unlike the religious leaders of Iran, the Revolutionary Guards lack
moral and religious values, with the exception of one very deep religious
belief: that they are the messengers of the Mahdi, the vanguard of the
messiah," Amir said. "Indeed, most of the commanders of the Revolutionary
Guards are uneducated. Most have never visited a Western country."
In the other scenario, the Teheran regime would collapse amid rising
unrest, similar to that of the Islamic revolution against the Shah in 1979.
Amir said international sanctions would spark major price rises and fuel
domestic opposition.
"Changes to the system of subsidies will yield much higher prices for
consumer goods such as fuel, rice, and bread, which can only add to
Ahmadinejad's unpopularity," the report said. "In this context,
international pressure and sanctions on Iran will very much influence the
continuation of the struggle against the regime. Either way, in the end this
regime will collapse."
