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Monday, February 1, 2010     FOR YOUR EYES ONLY

As internal pressure builds, Iran could 'lash out' using Hamas and Hizbullah, U.S. warns

WASHINGTON — The United States has warned that Iran could use its proxies to spark a war in the Middle East as an increasingly restive Iranian population continues to challenge the regime.   

U.S. National Securit Adviser James Jones said Iran could be ready to order such proxies as Hamas and Hizbullah to launch hostilities that would spark a regional war. Jones said Iran could use the two Islamic militias to target Israel from Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

"History shows that when regimes are feeling pressure as Iran is internally and will externally in the near future, it often lashes out through its surrogates, including in Iran's case, Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza," Jones said.


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In a Jan. 29 address to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jones said Iran was under increasing pressure both from within and abroad, Middle East Newsline reported. He said the Teheran regime was under threat of U.S. and other sanctions for failing to halt its uranium enrichment program.

"The stakes here are enormous," Jones said. "We simply cannot afford a nuclear arms race in the Middle East as a consequence of Iran developing nuclear weapons and delivering these nuclear weapons."

Jones said Iran's nuclear weapons program was closely connected to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. He said Teheran could activate its agents in the West Bank and Gaza Strip for renewed attacks against Israel.

"As pressure on the regime in Teheran builds on its nuclear program, there is a heightened risk of further attacks against Israel or with efforts to promote renewed violence in the West Bank," Jones said.

Officials said the administration of President Barack Obama has also been concerned about Iranian provocations in the Gulf. They said the White House has approved a project to accelerate the deployment of missile defense systems in Gulf Cooperation Council states to prevent Iranian missile strikes.

"Our first goal is to deter the Iranians," a senior administration official told the New York Times on Jan. 30. "A second is to reassure the Arab states, so they don't feel they have to go nuclear themselves. But there is certainly an element of calming the Israelis as well."

The administration plan included the deployment of Aegis-class cruisers off the Iranian coast as well as PAC-3 and other systems in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Each of these countries would be offered two PAC-3 systems.

Officials said Oman has also been briefed on U.S. missile defense systems but has not made a procurement decision. They said Oman, which hosts British and U.S. militaries, has been careful not to anger Iran.

The effort to bolster GCC defenses has been led by U.S. Central Command. Centcom chief Gen. David Petraeus said Iran would be monitored by Aegis ships, equipped with anti-missile systems.

"Iran is clearly seen as a very serious threat by those on the other side of the Gulf front, and indeed, it has been a catalyst for the implementation of the architecture that we envision and have now been trying to implement," Petraeus told the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War on Jan. 22.




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