Free Headline Alerts     
Worldwide Web WorldTribune.com

  breaking... 


Thursday, June 12, 2008

U.S. intelligence: Peace prospects on hold until new administration

WASHINGTON — The U.S. intelligence community has dismissed the prospect of an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord in 2008.

A senior U.S. intelligence official said the effort by the Bush administration to win agreement for a Palestinian state in the West Bank was unlikely to succeed. The official said Hamas remains a major threat to the Palestinian Authority and could take over power in the West Bank.

In a briefing to the Washington Institute on May 29, U.S. Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence DonaldKerr was skeptical over the prospect of U.S. achievements in the Middle East during the last months of the administration. He said the White House would probably not make significant progress in either stopping Iran's nuclear program or political reconciliation in Iraq, Middle East Newsline reported.

Instead, Kerr said U.S. efforts in the Middle East would have to be renewed by the successor to President George Bush. He said the first briefing for the new president would be on threats from the Middle East.

"Your first post-inaugural briefing will, for the foreseeable future, remain the threats and challenges emanating from the Middle East," Kerr said. "The Middle East threats and challenges I've laid out are nonpartisan in nature and will confront our nation regardless of who is in the Oval Office to receive this briefing."

Also In This Edition

Despite continuing high-level Israeli-Palestinian discussions on final status issues since the Annapolis meeting last November, concern persists over the Palestinian Authority's ability to meet its security obligations and to win popular support for or implement an eventual deal," Kerr said.

"President Abbas and other moderates remain vulnerable to actions by Hamas and other groups aimed at subverting an agreement and tensions between Abbas and Hamas remain high."

The U.S. intelligence assessment was issued in face of a drive by President George Bush to establish a Palestinian state before he leaves office in January 2008. Officials said that despite two visits to Israel in 2008, Bush has quietly acknowledged that political turmoil in Israel and the PA made the prospect of a Palestinian state in the West Bank unlikely during his presidency.

Kerr said the intelligence community remained skeptical over the PA's capability to maintain order and secure the regime of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. He said despite some PA security achievements, the Abbas regime, which has failed in key areas, remains vulnerable to Hamas.

"In the West Bank, we see signs of progress by Fatah, including improved security and law enforcement cooperation with Israeli forces in taking more effective action against Hamas," Kerr said. "The Palestinian public has not seen tangible positive changes in key areas, however, such as improving freedom of movement and freezing Israeli settlement expansion. Recent polling data indicates that popular support for the Palestinian government has slipped significantly."

In contrast, the Hamas regime, despite a weak economy in the Gaza Strip, has maintained its support, Kerr said. He said Hamas has also bolstered its control in wake of the Islamic takeover of the Gaza Strip in June 2007.

"Hamas feels increased pressure over a weakening economic situation and an accelerating humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip," Kerr said. "That said, its popular support has remained stable since last June and the group remains fairly unified and has consolidated its security and administrative control of the Gaza Strip."

Kerr said Iran has become the leading supporter of the Hamas regime. He said Teheran has been "exploiting international efforts to isolate Hamas since its seizure of the Gaza Strip by providing financial aid and arms to the group."

At the same time, Iran was unlikely to produce sufficient weapons-grade uranium by 2009 for its nuclear weapons program, Kerr said. But, citing the prospect that Teheran has resumed its weapons program, he said this was a probability as early as 2010. "We do not know if it has been restarted," Kerr said. "We assess with moderate to high confidence that Teheran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons."


About Us     l    Contact Us     l    Geostrategy-Direct.com     l    East-Asia-Intel.com
Copyright © 2008    East West Services, Inc.    All rights reserved.