Despite continuing high-level Israeli-Palestinian discussions on final
status issues since the Annapolis meeting last November, concern persists
over the Palestinian Authority's ability to meet its security obligations
and to win popular support for or implement an eventual deal," Kerr said.
"President Abbas and other moderates remain vulnerable to actions by
Hamas and other groups aimed at subverting an agreement and tensions
between Abbas and Hamas remain high."
The U.S. intelligence assessment was issued in face of a drive by
President George Bush to establish a Palestinian state before he leaves
office in January 2008. Officials said that despite two visits to Israel in
2008, Bush has quietly acknowledged that political turmoil in Israel and the
PA made the prospect of a Palestinian state in the West Bank unlikely during
his presidency.
Kerr said the intelligence community remained skeptical over the PA's
capability to maintain order and secure the regime of PA Chairman Mahmoud
Abbas. He said despite some PA security achievements, the Abbas regime,
which has failed in key areas, remains vulnerable to Hamas.
"In the West Bank, we see signs of progress by Fatah, including improved
security and law enforcement cooperation with Israeli forces in taking more
effective action against Hamas," Kerr said. "The Palestinian public has not
seen tangible positive changes in key areas, however, such as improving
freedom of movement and freezing Israeli settlement expansion. Recent
polling data indicates that popular support for the Palestinian government
has slipped significantly."
In contrast, the Hamas regime, despite a weak economy in the Gaza Strip,
has maintained its support, Kerr said. He said Hamas has also bolstered its
control in wake of the Islamic takeover of the Gaza Strip in June 2007.
"Hamas feels increased pressure over a weakening economic situation and
an accelerating humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip," Kerr said. "That
said, its popular support has remained stable since last June and the group
remains fairly unified and has consolidated its security and administrative
control of the Gaza Strip."
Kerr said Iran has become the leading supporter of the Hamas regime. He
said Teheran has been "exploiting international efforts to isolate Hamas
since its seizure of the Gaza Strip by providing financial aid and arms to
the group."
At the same time, Iran was unlikely to produce sufficient weapons-grade
uranium by 2009 for its nuclear weapons program, Kerr said. But, citing the
prospect
that Teheran has resumed its weapons program, he said this was a probability
as early
as 2010.
"We do not know if it has been restarted," Kerr said. "We assess with
moderate to high confidence that Teheran at a minimum is keeping open the
option to develop nuclear weapons."