ICG's assessment was shared by opposition parties, which have threatened
a boycott. In a report titled "Elections in Darfour and the Consequences of
a Probable NCP Victory in Sudan," ICG asserted that the ruling National
Congress Party manipulated the 2008 census to include newcomers from Chad
and Niger, drafted biased election laws, gerrymandered electoral districts,
co-opted traditional leaders and bought tribal loyalties.
"It has done this everywhere in Sudan, but most dramatically in Darfour,
where it has greater freedom and means to carry out its strategy because of
the ongoing conflict," ICG said. "Winning big in Darfour is central to the
NCP's plan to capture enough votes in the north to ensure its continued
national dominance."
ICG dismissed the prospect that international monitors could help
prevent fraud in national elections. The report said much of the election
rigging has already taken place, with 2.6 million displaced Sudanese ignored
by the census and thus unable to vote.
As a result, the rebellion in Darfour was expected to intensify after
the April elections. ICG said the international community could do little
more than press Khartoum to conduct another census.
"Since the April vote will impose illegitimate officials through rigged
polls, Darfouris will be left with little or no hope of a peaceful change in
the status quo," E.J. Hogendoorn, director of ICG's Horn of Africa Project,
said. "Instead many will look to rebel groups to fight and win back their
lost rights and lands."
