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Friday, February 19, 2010     GET REAL

Darfour remains hotspot for unrest; U.S. warns of Sudanese civil war

WASHINGTON — Khartoum's military has pacified much of the rebel province of Darfour. But the intelligence community said Darfour would remain a major source of unrest for the Sudanese regime amid growing ethnic violence and crime.   

"Darfour almost certainly will continue to experience sporadic bouts of fighting, especially as the government and rebels try to secure stronger negotiating positions in peace talks," the assessment said.

Meanwhile, the U.S. intelligence community has warned of another civil war in Sudan.


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An assessment by the U.S. intelligence community said Sudan was heading for a war between the Muslim north and the Christian and animist south over the next year. The assessment, relayed to Congress, said both Khartoum and southern Sudan were arming for the renewal of a 20-year conflict that ended in 2005.

"The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement brought a tenuous peace between northern and southern Sudan, but many observers warn that the risk of renewed conflict is rising as we approach 2011, when the south is set to vote in a referendum on southern independence," the intelligence assessment, released on Feb. 2, said.

The report by the Office of the National Intelligence Director warned that the south appears ready to resume its war of independence in 2011. The intelligence community said Khartoum and the south have failed to resolve any basic issues set in the 2005 accord.

"Khartoum and Juba are running out of time to resolve disputes over the north-south border — along which most of Sudan’s oil reserves lie — or to formulate a post-2011 wealth-sharing deal, which we judge are key to preserving the peace," the assessment said. "While a renewed conflict could be limited to proxy fighting or skirmishes focused around individual oilfields, both sides' arms purchases indicate their anticipation of more widespread conflict."

The assessment said the autonomous southern government has failed to plan for development after the 2011 elections. Instead, southern leaders have focused on a military buildup.

"The southern government is spending a large amount of its revenues on military force modernization while failing to provide basic services, curb rampant corruption, or curtail escalating tribal clashes," the assessment said.



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