An assessment by the U.S. intelligence community said Sudan was heading
for a war between the Muslim north and the Christian and animist south over
the next year. The assessment, relayed to Congress, said both Khartoum and
southern Sudan were arming for the renewal of a 20-year conflict that ended
in 2005.
"The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement brought a tenuous peace between
northern and southern Sudan, but many observers warn that the risk of
renewed conflict is rising as we approach 2011, when the south is set to
vote in a referendum on southern independence," the intelligence assessment,
released on Feb. 2, said.
The report by the Office of the National Intelligence Director warned
that the south appears ready to resume its war of independence in 2011. The
intelligence community said Khartoum
and the south have failed to resolve any basic issues set in the 2005
accord.
"Khartoum and Juba are running out of time to resolve disputes over the
north-south border — along which most of Sudan’s oil reserves lie — or to
formulate a post-2011 wealth-sharing deal, which we judge are key to
preserving the peace," the assessment said. "While a renewed conflict could
be limited to proxy fighting or skirmishes focused around individual
oilfields, both sides' arms purchases indicate their anticipation of more
widespread conflict."
The assessment said the autonomous southern government has failed to
plan for development after the 2011 elections. Instead, southern leaders
have focused on a military buildup.
"The southern government is spending a large amount of its revenues on
military force modernization while failing to provide basic services, curb
rampant corruption, or curtail escalating tribal clashes," the assessment
said.