Authored by leading Israeli defense analyst Yiftah Shapir, the report
played down the proposed U.S. package of 84 F-15E fighter-jets and 132
military helicopters to the Saudi kingdom. The helicopters were said to
consist of 72 S-70 Black Hawks and 62 AH-6D Apache Longbows. The entire
package has been estimated at $60 billion.
"Even if the deal is presented to Congress, there is expected to be long
negotiations that could stand or fall on such details as type of equipment,
price, repayment, delivery schedule and maintenance," the report said.
"These kinds of negotiations can take years."
The report said Riyad would receive F-15Es similar to those ordered by
the kingdom in the 1990s. INSS said Saudi Arabia would not acquire a stealth
version of the F-15E, which remains under development, or long-range
weapons.
"Contacts for the deal were conducted secretly due to Saudi
sensitivity," the report said. "At the same time, however, there were hints
that the deal would not include equipment items that could arouse serious
opposition on the part of Israel, such as long-range precision guided
air-to-surface missiles."
Saudi Arabia has already been absorbing the first of 72 Eurofighter
Typhoon combat aircraft from BAE Systems. Under the project, estimated to
exceed $20 billion, BAE would build a huge training, maintenance and
production infrastructure in the Gulf Cooperation Council kingdom.
Shapir, a reserve Israeli intelligence officer, asserted that the Saudi
military would be unable to expand its Air Force to accommodate the proposed
U.S. deal. He said the military would be forced to rely, perhaps
exclusively, on foreign contractors.
"This would require the preparation of manpower in considerable
quantities, even on the assumption that as in the past the Saudis will rely
on maintenance and training that is almost entirely based on foreign
workers employed by foreign contractors," the report said.
INSS did not rule out the prospect that Saudi Arabia might never
implement the U.S. aircraft deal. The report cited previous U.S.
announcements of Saudi weapons requests over the last decade,
which often failed to result in contracts.
"The announcement of the sale is in accordance with the Obama
administration's policy to bolster the defense of U.S. allies in the Gulf in
face of the Iranian threat," the report said. "It seems that in the Saudi
case, the cow wants to nurse more than the calf wants to drink."
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