So far, most of the newly-revived militias have been identified as being
aligned with Syria. They included the Free Patriotic Movement, led by former
Lebanese
President Michel Aoun and linked to Hizbullah and Damascus.
The Lebanese media have reported that several militias sent their
fighters to six-day training courses by Hizbullah. Aoun's forces were said
to receive two-day courses from former Lebanese Army officers.
"These weapons exist and are for self-defense and not to be used to
carry out military operations," Aoun said.
Two other pro-Syrian factions, led by former ministers Zaher Khatib and
Wiam Wahab, were also undergoing military training, officials said. The
training has been provided by Hizbullah in the Bekaa Valley near the Syrian
border and Jbeil in southern Lebanon.
A key concern was that militia violence would rage within the Christian
sector. In 1989, during the final months of Aoun's presidency, the Lebanese
Army and Lebanese Forces battled in Beirut, which led to the Syrian
destruction of his regime.
[Ret.] Gen. Elias Hanna said he envisioned the outbreak of civil war
over efforts to elect a new president. Hanna cited the coalition led by
Lebanese parliamentarian Saad Harari — known as the March 14 forces — and
opposed by Hizbullah and pro-Syrian groups.
"The March 14 forces will elect a new president and the opposition's
response will be civil disobedience at the very least," Hanna said. "This
uprising against
the president could lead to a military clash."
So far, the militia training has been limited to light arms maneuvers.
But officials did not rule out the procurement of rockets, anti-tank
missiles and other heavy weapons.
"In 1975, you had the Palestinians and you did not have a major armed
Lebanese force like Hizbullah," Hanna told the Beirut-based Daily Star.
"Today there is deep U.S. involvement and there are international
resolutions. You have Shi'ites aligned with Maronites and Sunnis aligned
with Maronites. Now it would be a very different civil war."
Opposition leaders said Hizbullah has played a major role in the militia
revival. They said Hizbullah has provided AK-47 assault rifles and was
organizing units of pro-Syrian fighters.
The Siniora government has acknowledged renewed militia activity. On
Sept. 24, the government held a seven-hour meeting on the renewed threat of
civil war.
"Political differences between the various political factions is
normal," Lebanese Information Minister Ghazi Aridi said. "But resorting to
weapons and the logic of force and threats of confrontation and war is
rejected by all."