"The embassy is limiting the movement of embassy personnel during this
time, specifically in downtown Beirut near the parliament building and other
government offices," the embassy said in a warden message on Nov. 17.
The warden message said the embassy was restricting all but essential
travel to Beirut International Airport from Nov. 20 to Nov. 26. During this
period, Siniora was expected to convene parliament for a vote on a successor
to pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud.
On Nov. 24, Lahoud's tenure was scheduled to end. Parliament was also
expected to select a new prime minister and Cabinet, which could spark
violence. The embassy also urged Americans to keep away from popular spots
and remain vigilant.
"Even after November 26, U.S. citizens should remain vigilant and follow
political developments closely, in particular if parliament does not elect a
president by November 24," the embassy said.
After being deployed for nearly 14 months, European
Union states were examining a timetable for a withdrawal from a United
Nations peace-keeping mission in Lebanon.
"There could be a withdrawal in early 2008," an official said. "It's
very much on the agenda."
[On Nov. 12, a French soldier in UNIFIL was killed in what was termed an
accidental weapon discharge. Another soldier was wounded in the incident.]
In mid-2007, at least six UNIFIL troops were killed in bombings
attributed to Al Qaida or other insurgents in southern Lebanon. Since then,
UNIFIL has significantly reduced its activities in southern Lebanon and
coordinates all patrols with the Lebanese Army.
On Nov. 15, a Lebanese newspaper, A-Safir, reported that Al Qaida
struck UN troops in an effort to sow discord between peace-keepers and the
Iranian-sponsored Hizbullah. The pro-Hizbullah newspaper also said an Al
Qaida cell, which included a Libyan national, also sought to assassinate
Hizbullah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah.
Officials said the first country to withdraw much of its troops could be
Germany. Germany was scheduled to transfer command of the UNIFIL naval
contingent in February 2008.
The showdown between pro- and anti-Syrian forces in parliament could
accelerate the downsizing of UNIFIL. In early November, UNIFIL commander
Maj. Gen. Claudio Graziano warned Lebanese politicians that the continued
political crisis could prompt EU states to "withdraw from UNIFIL within less
than four months."
On Nov. 14, Graziano denied that he warned that UN forces would leave
Lebanon over the next few months. He stressed that UNIFIL's mandate was
scheduled to end in July 2008.
"Until that time, UNIFIL is staying in the south," Graziano told the
Beirut-based Daily Star. "What is more, we are awaiting the arrival of
additional forces to support the current ones."
On Nov. 15, UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon arrives in Beirut to
discuss continued delays in holding presidential elections. Ban was expected
to urge Lebanese leaders to resolve the issue before the mandate of
President Emile Lahoud expires on Nov. 23.
Israel has agreed with the assessment that UNIFIL was preparing a sharp
troop reduction. Officials cited UNIFIL exercises to enhance force
protection at the expense of patrols and efforts to block weapons smuggling
south of the Litani River.
"UNIFIL has long stopped patrolling at night and there hasn't been a
major weapons seizure in months," an official said.