The report outlined the stalemate between Morocco and Polisario in
United Nations mediation over the last five years. Polisario, sponsored by
Algeria, has been controlling about 20 percent of the desert region or an
estimated 155,000 people.
"Morocco's next move may be a unilateral imposition of autonomy,
although so long as negotiations are afoot with the United States and the EU
support, Rabat is unlikely to act," the report said.
Sicherman said Polisario has been able to recruit international aid for
the refugee camps in Tindouf. In contrast, Morocco has paid for
the administration of its 80 percent of Western Sahara.
"As for the Polisario-controlled refugees, the international donors are
weary, less money is available and other, more demanding natural disasters
are more compelling," the report, released in April 2010, said. "Thus, both
sides have economic pressures for change."
The report pointed to declining support for the establishment of an
independent entity in Western Sahara. Sicherman said the European Union and United States were concerned
of another sanctuary for Al Qaida.
"As the terrorist preference for sanctuaries in weak or failed states
has developed apace, the idea of a Polisario republic grows more and more
dubious," the report said. "The last thing the world or Africa needs is yet
another dependent, inept, and chaotic territory pretending to be a state."
So far, the report said, the United States has not changed its policy
toward Western Sahara. The administration of President Barack Obama was said
to have followed its predecessor in encouraging negotiations with Polisario
rather than imposing Rabat's autonomy plan.
"The United States continues to work with Morocco and other Maghreb
states on common interests; advocates a quick settlement of the Sahara
problem; and encourages negotiations over the autonomy plan," the report
said.
ShareThis
