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Thursday, June 2, 2011     INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING

Report: Yemen's Saleh won't survive year
as president

LONDON — Yemen's embattled president was expected to leave office over the next few months, a report said.


The Eurasia Group said President Ali Abdullah Saleh was not likely to remain in power until the end of 2011. In a report, the consultant assessed that Saleh would face increasing opposition that threatened to erupt into civil war.

"Saleh is unlikely to survive 2011 as president of Yemen," the report, released on June 1, said.

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Eurasia, which publishes risk analysis, said Saleh was resisting international mediation for his resignation, Middle East Newsline reported. The Gulf Cooperation Council as well as Western nations were pressing on Saleh, in power, since 1979, to leave office and seek a haven abroad.

"The likelihood of a managed transition is decreasing, and an attempt to forcibly oust Saleh from power is becoming more likely," the report said.

The report cited the decline of Saleh's military, much of it controlled by the president's family. The military and security forces have been battling breakaway units in Sanaa as well as Al Qaida in the southern city of Zinjibar.

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