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Tuesday, May 31, 2011     INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING

Israeli intel sees UN Security Council blocking Palestinian state this year

JERUSALEM — Israel's intelligence community has assessed that the international community would not formally recognize any Palestinian state declared in the West Bank this year.


Officials said the intelligence community has concluded that the United Nations would not complete the process of recognizing a Palestinian state. They said the UN General Assembly would recognize an independent Palestinian state in September 2011 but this would not be endorsed by the Security Council.

"Such an attempt is destined for failure," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

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In testimony to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on May 30, Netanyahu said Israel could not stop any resolution in the General Assembly, Middle East Newsline reported. But he said any formal recognition of a Palestinian state would require approval by the Security Council.

"No one can stop the United Nations General Assembly from recognizing the Palestinian state in September," Netanyahu said. "The UN can also adopt a resolution that the world is flat."

The United States has already indicated that it would veto any resolution for Palestinian independence. President Barack Obama said any such resolution would not lead to the unilateral establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank.

"I told the president that we cannot accept the 1967 lines," Netanyahu said.

The intelligence community, however, envisioned heavy international pressure on Israel over the next few months. Officials said dozens of states, including those in the European Union, would threaten to recognize the Palestinian state unless Israel concedes to the demands of the Palestinian Authority.

"It is important to prepare for the tsunami of September," Defense Minister Ehud Barak said. "The complexity of September has not disappeared. We need internal unity, and we'll be stronger if we cross our hands together."

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