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Friday, July 15, 2011     INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING

Report: Russia could face strategic setbacks,
lost arms revenue in Syria, Libya

WASHINGTON — Russia seeks to maintain its defense market in Libya through the use of neighboring Belarus, a report said.

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The Foreign Policy Research Institute asserted that the Kremlin was trying to maintain weapons sales to the regime of Col. Moammar Gadhafi, Middle East Newsline reported. In a report, the U.S. institute said Russia might be transferring weapons to Tripoli through Belarus, long deemed a violator of international sanctions.

"Russia already stands to lose, by its own account, $4.5 billion in arms deals with Libya and that figure excludes Syria," the report, titled "Russia's Anxieties About The Arab Revolution," said.

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Authored by U.S. Army War College professor Stephen Blank, the report said Libya has played a significant role in Russia's strategy in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. The report said Libya was prepared to supply the Russian Navy with docking rights in the North African state.

"Beyond that, Libya has also reportedly offered Russia a naval base in Benghazi while Syria has offered Moscow a naval base at Tartous," the report said.

"These events suggest that in return for arms sales host states are being pressured to give Moscow access to foreign bases."

The report said Russia appears to be supplying Tripoli with weapons from Belarus. Blank said the Gadhafi regime has sought additional weapons in its war with the Western-backed rebel movement.

"Moreover, Russia might still be supplying weapons covertly to Libya through Belarus, a habitual conduit of weapons to places where Russia wishes to retain deniability, since Libya has recently asked Belarus for more weapons," the report said.

"Syria's importance as a buyer of Russian arms, often paid for by Saudi or Iranian subsidies to Syria, is of a comparable economic and strategic magnitude."



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