The report, dated Oct. 8, was released amid the congressional freeze of
$100 million in U.S. military aid to Lebanon in wake of a shootout along the
border with Israel in August. CRS said Hizbullah, with more than 40,000
missiles and rockets, would block any disarmament attempt by the Lebanese
government.
The report also outlined U.S. military aid to Lebanon. Under the Obama
administration, Washington has helped train and equip a new 700-man border
force comprised of the military and ISF. The force would focus on Lebanon's
eastern border with Syria.
"The United States is caught in a Catch-22; it cannot equip a Lebanese
Army capable of confronting Hizbullah militarily without altering the
military balance in the Levant and possibly affecting
Israel's Qualitative Military Edge," the report said. "Furthermore, many
analysts question whether the LAF, even with more advanced training and
equipment, possesses the political will to confront Hizbullah."
"They might argue that the LAF and Hizbullah are, to a certain degree,
natural allies, bound by a common threat perception and a regional outlook
that is not shared by the United States," the report said.
CRS also dismissed the prospect that Washington could conduct a
dialogue, let alone reach an understanding, with Hizbullah. The report cited
Iranian sponsorship as well as significant Syrian support for Hizbullah.
"Given these positions most observers believe that prospects for
accommodation and engagement between the United States and Hizbullah are
slim, even as the group's close relationships with
Syria and Iran, its pivotal role in Lebanese politics, and reinvigorated
U.S. engagement in regional peace efforts increase Hizbullah's potential
influence over stated U.S. national security objectives," the report said.
Still, CRS has not ruled out the prospect that the administration could
decide to engage Hizbullah. The report cited statements by Obama's security
adviser, John Brennan, who argued that Hizbullah contained moderate elements
that could be encouraged by Washington.
"The administration has since walked back these comments, and officials
at all levels have reiterated that the United States does not engage with
terrorist organizations," the report said. "For the time being, U.S. policy
makers at all levels appear to reject this option."