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Wednesday, September 29, 2010     GET REAL

The China-Japan dust-up is worse than it seems

By Sol W. Sanders

Nothing should make the world so nervous as conflict between the two East Asian behemoths, China and Japan. Their long history of curiously incestuous but bitterly conflicted relations dominates history in their part of the world.

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That is why even a minor clash between a Chinese fishing boat and small Japanese coastal security craft has turned into a major flashpoint, exciting not only their two capitals but Washington as well.

We may never know the exact details of the episode. But in early September a Chinese fishing craft [and there are fishing boats and fishing boats] bumped two Japanese Coast Guard speedboats. The episode took place in rich tuna grounds among rocky uninhabited islands which stretch southward in the East China Sea from the Japanese main home islands and the Ryuku chain [including Okinawa heavily loaded with U.S. bases] and to Taiwan.


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These islands, called the Senkakus by the Japanese, Diaoyu by the Chinese, are claimed by both. They have taken on new importance because of speculation there may be oil and gas deposits beneath them. The argument over their sovereignty and control is an expression of China’s growing economic and military power which recently has seen estimates of the Chinese gross national product surpass Japan as the world’s No. 2 economy.

The “normal” routine in such encounters is that the Japanese take the fishing boats into custody, eventually return them to either their Mainland or, often, Taiwanese homeports. But this time, apparently, the fishing boat captain attempted to make a run for it, but was captured. Tokyo almost immediately released the crew and the ship but held on to the commander to be tried locally under Japanese law.

Beijing howled. Its government media repeated recent highly chauvinistic claims as it has recently done for other contested [with Southeast Asian nations] islets in the South China Sea. Stock Chinese Communist phrases placed them on a par with Beijing’s sovereignty over troubled Tibet and Singkiang.

An hours-old new Tokyo cabinet first stood its ground. Then, it caved. A local magistrate released the ship’s captain rationalizing the collisions were “deliberate, but not pre-meditated.” Earlier Tokyo versions had the two “bumps” occurring at different intervals, indicating the unlikelihood that they were accidental. And the question hanging in the air was whether the ship’s captain was acting on instructions or a rogue mariner who had taken it on himself to try to intimidate the smaller Japanese craft.

Whatever, behind the scenes, a complex political and diplomatic scramble was going forward. Washington, which in some Japanese circles had been seen as less than responsive in recent international issues to Tokyo’s concerns, especially on the North Korean threat, seemed to shift its position. Only weeks earlier Washington had made a point of removing these disputed islands from under the umbrella of the U.S.-Japan Mutual Defense Treaty. But Vice President Joseph Biden in a public address placed U.S.-China relations as subsidiary to concerns of the Japanese alliance.

A State Dept. spokesman used diplomatese to explain that Washington made a distinction between areas under Japanese control and sovereignty — but did reaffirm the application of the Treaty in any defense of Japanese territory against aggression [presumably including China]. [A few weeks earlier, suddenly, Sec. of State Hillary Clinton had forthrightly denounced similar China’s South China Sea claims, backing the Southeast Asians in seeking negotiations with Beijing.]

All that bucked up the Japanese, not the least the new Japanese foreign minister, Seiji Maehara, a power in the heterogeneous ruling Democratic Party of Japan [DPJ]. Maehara, who just arrived at the post largely because of internal politics of the DPJ, unlike many of his former socialist and pacifist Party colleagues, is seen as a hawk on China and one of the most stalwart supporters of the American alliance. But some Japanese explained the capitulation as “advised” by Washington.

Meanwhile, Beijing had added important pressures to its propaganda. China is now Japan’s number one trading partner and an important export and reexport market market at a time of downturn in the Japanese economy. Although denied later, the Chinese reportedly halted shipments of “rare earths” — on which China temporarily has a world monopoly. These minerals are critical to many electronic products, the heart of Japanese high tech exports. [Beijing later denied any such ban — perhaps with recognition that a Colorado company as well as others are beginning to stir to break Beijing’s temporary monopoly with North American and perhaps African production.]

Four Japanese working for a company which has been engaged in a long-term project to “demobilized” chemical warfare sites in China built by the Japanese during World War II were arrested, ostensibly for espionage. [The Japanese company specializes, among other things, in “unmanned construction” projects which permit operations in dangerous areas by remote control.] Beijing canceled bilateral meetings which characterize Japanese-Chinese relations in an effort to keep a complex and convoluted economic, political and cultural relationship on an even keel.

As this is written, the saga continues. Beijing is demanding an “apology” — an issue that takes much more precedence in East Asian cultures than perhaps in the West where “face” is critical — and compensation.



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