John J. Metzler

MONTREAL — The business plan and logic are seemingly simple enough; deliver up to 830,000 barrels of Alberta oil sands petroleum a day to U.S. Gulf coast refineries through a new pipeline.

The specifics become more complicated; the 1,900 km oil pipeline from Alberta will cross six American states and go to terminals in Oklahoma and refineries in the Gulf Coast. The challenge emerges that both the environmental lobby and wavering Obama Administration has put the Keystone XL Pipeline on hold, threatening the project’s future.

Given that the USA has prudently tried to lessen petroleum dependence on risky Middle Eastern sources and politically dodgy Venezuela, there’s a compelling logic to closer energy cooperation with Canada. Safety, security and proximity of supplies all clearly argue in Canada’s favor. Moreover the surge of an extra 830,000 barrels of oil for the thirsty American market, carried by underground pipeline and not the risky overland rail routes, seems a logical move.

John Baird, Canada’s Foreign Minister stated clearly, “One politician — the President of the United States — can say yes to a great project to create jobs on both sides of the border, help with energy independence and energy security…. Decision time is upon us.”

Canada’s Conservative government is focused on Keystone XL both as a serious $5 billion plus infrastructural project and jobs creating plan.

Later during a whirlwind trip to Washington Foreign Minister Baird made his case to Democrats and Republicans that the pipeline is critical to both Canada and the USA. Baird exclaimed, “it’s a great project that will increase the energy security of our closest friend and ally.”

Canada is also the USA’s biggest trading partner and the single largest energy supplier. Instead what we’ve seen is Obama’s fumbling Keystone cops policy towards a true friend.

While most Republicans, business groups, and trade unions largely support Keystone, six Midwestern Democratic Senators equally back the project. North Dakota Democrat Sen. Heidi Heitkamp has expressed frustration over the lengthy pipeline approval process. Sen. Heitkamp favors giving a “green light” to the Keystone XL pipeline.

Political pundits in Washington have suggested that should Obama reject the pipeline accord, there would be a voter backlash against vulnerable Democrat senators from the region who are up for re-election this November.

Indeed the U.S. State Department is expected to release a cautious but supportive environmental impact report on the XL pipeline by the end of January. The report will stress the need for crucial and prudent environmental safeguards for the project. Oil sand extraction produces high greenhouse gasses, for example.

Then comes the nail biting decision by President Obama due three months later in a “national interest determination.” Don’t be surprised if the President plays Hamlet, deliberates further, and stalls the decision off until after the crucial November mid-tem elections.

Barack Obama seems torn between his lukewarm support for the pipeline and the bitter emotional opposition of the environmental lobby, a key element of the president’s frayed constituency. Since 2008, the Keystone pipeline issue has proven a rallying point for environmental activists, but has divided trade unions, and the Democrat party. The stakes will rise as decision time approaches.

But beyond much of the harem scarem emotions which environmental activists will unleash on both sides of the border, there’s still ample time to ensure and plan for proper conservation safeguards for the project.

One glaring issue remains that if the pipeline is not built, much of the oil will continue to go to the Gulf coast refineries, but on a more accident prone rail network running through American communities. Recent oil train wrecks in the U.S. and Canada underscore the danger of overland transport.

As Baird told the U.S. Chamber of Commerce “The time for Keystone is now. I’ll go further, the time for a decision on Keystone is now, even if it’s not the right one. We can’t continue in this state of limbo.”

Well limbo aside, let’s make the right decision. That means ample and judicious safeguards for the environment, but not political paralysis reflecting a chicken little “the sky is falling “ managerial approach.

Gary Doer, Canada’s Ambassador to the U.S. made the case succinctly. “It always makes more sense in our view to get energy from Middle North America than the Middle East.” I would agree.

John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for WorldTribune.com. He is the author of Transatlantic Divide ; USA/Euroland Rift (University Press, 2010).

  Gary Doer, John Baird, Keystone XL pipeline, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, Time for Obama to make up his mind on the Keystone pipeline? Don’t hold your breath, U.S. Chamber of Commerce