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Tuesday, February 1, 2011     INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING

Report: Post-Mubarak regime seen as anti-West, aligned with Al Qaida

WASHINGTON — Egypt's opposition, should it replace President Hosni Mubarak, would recognize the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip and prepare for war against Israel and the United States, a report said.


The Global Research in International Affairs Center stated that the Muslim Brotherhood has taken over most of the opposition once led by largely secular parties. In a report, center director Barry Rubin said the Brotherhood would play the leading role in any post-Mubarak regime.

"There is no organized moderate group in Egypt," the report, titled "Egypt: What the U.S. Should Do," said. "Even the most important past such organization, the Kifaya movement, has already been taken over by the Muslim Brotherhood."

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The Brotherhood has been embracing Al Qaida, the report said. Rubin cited speeches by Brotherhood members of the Egyptian parliament, many of whom endorsed jihad, or Islamic holy war.

"They want an Islamist radical state, ruled by Sharia and at war with Israel and the United States," the report said.

The report said a post-Mubarak regime would blame Israel, the United States and the West for Egypt's economic woes, Middle East Newsline reported. Another prospect was that Egypt's new regime forms an alliance with Iran.

"Without the confidence to resist the upheaval, the Egyptian system could collapse, leaving a vacuum that is not going to be filled by friendly leaders," the report said. "That is potentially disastrous for the United States and the Middle East."

Rubin said the United States has few options in Egypt, which since 1980 received $1.3 billion in annual American military aid. He said the key question was whether Washington should sit quietly or adopt a "strategy that has lots of negatives."

"After all, aside from the likely radicalism of their leaders, a revolutionary regime would be hostile toward the United States since America would be blamed for supporting the Egyptian dictatorship for decades," the report said. "President Obama will not charm them into moderation."

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