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Thursday, December 9, 2010     INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING

Sudan torpedos one referendum, prepares for war

CAIRO — Sudan has been accelerating military preparations amid the collapse of a referendum for the semi-autonomous south.

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Western diplomats said the regime of President Omar Bashir has ordered military strikes on southern Sudan in an effort to block independence. They said the military operations, including ground assaults and artillery shelling, have torpedoed the holding of at least one referendum scheduled for January 2011.

The diplomats said Bashir has been aided by Arab League members, most of which oppose the referendums as well as any prospect of southern secession. They said both the Khartoum regime as well as Juba's military were accelerating weapons imports in preparation for another war. Secret Gum Disease & Bad Breath Cure, 100% Guaranteed!


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"If it goes badly we understand that there is a significant risk of a return to civil war," State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said.

On Dec. 7, the United States announced the cancellation of one of two referendums for southern Sudan. The State Department said the referendum for self-determination for Sudan's oil-rich Abyei region would not be held on Jan. 9, 2011.

"I think we have a recognition that that referendum will not go forward on Jan. 9th, but we continue to encourage the parties to work on a solution to Abyei," Crowley said.

Diplomats said the cancellation of the Abyei referendum was expected. They said Khartoum was sending government-aligned militias and special forces to attack the Abyei region in an effort to intimidate United Nations personnel assigned to conduct the elections.

In November, Khartoum failed to reach agreement with the southern Sudanese government on the key issue of voter eligibility. The southern government in Juba has accused Bashir of preventing southerners who have been living in the north from reaching their homes to vote in the elections.

"We have made it clear to leaders in Khartoum and Juba they must cooperate in the post-referendum phase," Crowley said. "And should the people of south Sudan vote for independence, it will be incumbent upon them to work effectively and cooperatively leading to the creation of the new nation of South Sudan next July."



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