CAIRO — Sudan, facing the prospect of southern secession, could be plunged into another civil war, a report said.

ShareThis

The report, released on Oct. 29, cited Khartoum's opposition to independence of the non-Muslim south. Sudanese President Omar Bashir has been supported by virtually all Arab states.

The Rift Valley Institute asserted that Sudan has been torn by disputes between the Khartoum regime and the semi-autonomous south that could lead to renewed war. The institute, which operates in Sudan and the Horn of Africa, cited delays in a referendum in January 2010 regarding whether the oil-rich region of Abyei should join the north or south.

"A disputed result would hold serious risks in terms of a potential return to north-south military confrontation," the report, titled "Race Against Time," said. "Failure could mean a return to war."

[On Oct. 31, the southern Sudanese army said the Khartoum regime has sent troops to conduct ambushes in the Upper Nile state, Middle East Newsline reported. The southern army said the latest clash took place on Oct. 30 amid a military buildup in the disputed Abyei region.]

"At this final stage, brinkmanship, delays and broken agreements — old traditions of Sudanese politics — threaten to turn the political and technical challenges of the referenda into a national disaster," the report, authored by Aly Verjee, said.

On Jan. 9, 2011, Sudan was scheduled to present two ballots that could determine the future of Africa's largest nation. Voters would cast ballots on Abyei as well as independence for southern Sudan, now controlled by the Sudanese People's Liberation Army.

"Only concerted international attention and skillful diplomacy can bring the process of self-determination in Sudan to a successful conclusion," the 65-page report said.

The report expressed doubt whether the Jan. 9 referendum would be held. Verjee cited numerous delays, disputes on voter eligibility and lack of preparations for fair and transparent elections.

"The most critical area of potential dispute in the registration process will be the registration of southerners in northern Sudan," the report said. "There are very large numbers of southerners living in the cities of the north."

The report warned that elections could be marred by violence throughout the south. Verjee said southern police remain poorly equipped and trained to ensure election security, which could enable SPLA domination.

"Violence could easily prevent the Abyei vote from proceeding, and there could be spillover from problems in Abyei into Warrap and Unity states, affecting the southern referendum as well," the report said. "Some Southern Sudanese interviewees expressed fears that if stalling the referenda is no longer possible, and secession appears inevitable, a desperate NCP [ruling northern party] would encourage or fund proxy forces to destabilize strategic areas of Southern Sudan and Abyei."

---