John Metzler Archive

Hardball at the UN Security Council

In the General Assembly’s annual election for the five non-permanent places on the powerful Security Council, three countries were running unopposed for regional places. Yet for the aptly named West European and Others Group (WEOG) three countries were vying for two seats; Canada, Germany, and Portugal.

Given its long standing reputation as a “global good guy” for foreign aid and multilateral development, Canada was a clear favorite for one slot, despite yammering on the sidelines about Ottawa cutting some assistance and being too close to Jerusalem and Washington. Since being a UN founder in 1945, Canada had never been shunned for a two year Council stint.

Equally Germany one of the world’s largest humanitarian donors and third largest contributor to the UN budget seemed to have an inside track. Add the consistent and focused lobbying by the German Mission to the UN to explain Berlin’s position, and it appeared that the two winners would be Canada and Germany.

Portugal, a small Iberian country with a shaky socialist economy and far less political clout to bring to the table looked to be a loser, despite many UN delegations being more “comfortable” with little Portugal. But despair not. Jose Manuel Barroso, current European Union chief and former Portuguese Prime Minister, was going to play hardball and not let Lisbon’s chance fall by the wayside. Portugal last did a two year stint on the Council in the late 1990’s.

Then came the ballot. The full 192 member General Assembly was voting and a candidate needed two-thirds support to win. Germany won in the first ballot — not surprising. Then the game got interesting. The second vote saw Portugal and Canada face-off — and Canada then graciously grit its teeth and step aside to allow Portugal to win the seat which she did with 150 votes.

The setback, the first time Ottawa did not get a intended seat since 1945 was aptly described in the Economist of London as “humiliating.” Some diplomats described the slight as the result of Islamic states ganging up on Ottawa while others put the blame on comments by Liberal opposition leader in Ottawa claiming Canada does not deserve a place, given the policies of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s current Conservative government.

Either way there was no good outcome for Ottawa a classic multi-lateral player who was done in by multi-lateral machinations.

So the winners are Germany and Portugal for Europe, replacing Austria and Turkey.

Turkey’s two-year tenure proved a stinging disappointment as it became increasingly entwined in the radical agenda of Middle East politics. The Islamic-lite Ankara government shunned its traditional secular and pro-West attitude for a dubious diplomatic alignment with Iran and was wittingly pulled into the Gaza vortex. Austria, though officially neutral, remains doggedly democratic and pro-Western and will be missed.

Other regional seats for the rotation were unopposed with South Africa running and winning the African slot (see what a successful World Cup can do?), Columbia getting South America, and India the Asian seat.

Here are a few largely overlooked observations concerning the new mix. Come 2011 the fifteen member Security Council will reflect the BRIC combinations so many economists are enchanted with. Namely Brazil, Russia, India and China are now among the members, along with other permanent players such as France, the United Kingdom and the United States. Interestingly all aspirants for permanent seats — Brazil, Germany and India will serve concurrently on the Council while Japan is just leaving.

Now how does the new alignment of forces argue for the USA? Germany and Portugal are both NATO members. Though Germany’s last Council membership in 2003-2004 saw sparks fly between Berlin and Washington over the countdown to the Iraq operation, the leftist Social Democrat government is no longer in power, replaced instead by Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats. Ironically it’s the USA which now has a Social Democratic government to the left of Germany, France and the United Kingdom.

Portugal despite having a socialist-lite government (exactly the opposite during the 2003 countdown to Iraq) remains instinctively pro-Atlantisist and will be in concert with Washington on most issues. Thus Germany and Portugal, present a plus, plus.

South Africa supplants Uganda, Colombia replaces Mexico, India replaces Japan.

South Africa can be expected to side with China on many human rights issues while Colombia presents a plus for the U.S. While Washington shall miss the clear and focused support from Japan, significantly, India has evolved into a much closer political and trading partner in the past decade.

As of January 2011, the Council’s deck is reshuffled, let the game begin anew.