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John Metzler Archive
Monday, Septebmer 6, 2010

‘Turning the page’ in Iraq: And now, chapter II

UNITED NATIONS — In an near emotionless and vapid address from the Oval Office, President Barack Obama told Americans that the “page has been turned” and American combat units have been withdrawn from Iraq. Thus seven years after the start of the contentious war in Iraq, we were happily heading home. Had we won? The President failed to say so.

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The timing of the White House speech in itself was interesting; a week before Labor Day during the deep summer news doldrums, when few people were actually tuned in. But then most Americans have already tuned out on the Iraq story, largely because the situation has measurably improved there, and the economy has deteriorated here.

The overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s brutal dictatorship, despite the initial political chaos, eventually and painfully led to a fractious but weak democracy and cautious socio/ economic growth. This remains a positive achievement for the U.S. and the Middle East. Overall economic growth over the past few years stood at 4.5 percent and this year the IMF indicates growth may reach 7 percent, impressive numbers which must be seen the context of rebuilding from a very low base.

But many myths continue. The long standing left-wing argument that “we invaded Iraq for access to the vast oil reserves” has been part mythology of the war. In fact, the dilapidated Iraqi petroleum industry is producing about the same amount as it did before the conflict. In the years prior to the 2003 invasion, Iraq produced about 2 million barrels a day for export. Eight years later Iraq exports about the same. More surprisingly, is that American petroleum companies presumed to have had the inside track to oil concessions, have been largely outmaneuvered by a spate of foreign firms including BP, China National Petroleum, Total of France, and Russia’s Lukoil. So the myth that the war was about U.S. oil access was just that, a myth.

Clearly the cost of the was unreasonably high — both in blood and treasure. After the quick toppling of Saddam’s rule, the USA was woefully un-prepared for the serious counterinsurgency challenge which soon followed from the remnants of Saddam’s regime as well as Al Qaida terrorists. Mistakes were made which led to an entrenched insurgency which cost the lives of 4,000 American soldiers, 1,000 allied troops, and serious injury to thousands of others. The American military excelled in the field but at a high price.

Confronted by a dangerously deteriorating security situation in 2006, President George W Bush’s ordered the politically unpopular but militarily crucial military surge and change in tactics under the brilliant Gen. David Petraeus in 2007 which turned the tide. Then Sen. Obama opposed the surge. Today President Obama can be thankful for it. So can the Iraqi people who stood on the precipice of a civil war between Sunni and Shiite religious factions.

Violence has dropped by 90 percent from 2007. The bloody intra-Islamic sectarian strife has been dampened but not extinguished. Instability remains a political and security given.

The financial cost of the war since 2003 was near $750 billion, according to the bi-partisan Congressional Research Service. That sum however was surpassed in one year by Barack Obama’s 2009 controversial “stimulus spending” which exceeds $800 billion.

While U.S. combat units have now been withdrawn, (some being sent to Afghanistan) 50,000 American troops remain in Iraq “to advise and assist” the Iraqi military. That 50,000 number still remains one of the USA’s largest overseas troop commitments anywhere, except of course in Afghanistan.

Given that American combat units are out of Iraq, the obvious comparison emerges with South Vietnam in the waning years of the U.S. involvement. Regrettably the reformed and retrained Iraqi army (245,000) and police (410,000) may not be ready for prime-time and are not likely ready to stand on their own against a serious terrorist threat. The bickering Iraqi politicians face gridlock in forming a government six months after elections, and the potent possibility exists that the country will fracture along political, sectarian or security fault-lines. Yet, an agreement between Baghdad and Washington, allows Iraq to call on American troops to assist in combat operations if needed.

Still in South Vietnam’s case, the main communist offensive came two years after the Americans had left. The collapse of South Vietnam in the spring of 1975 followed a huge conventional military invasion from North Vietnam as well as continued domestic insurgency. Iraq does not face such a conventional armed threat from across any of its borders (even bellicose Iran is too focused on regime survival for this tact) and thus the danger is overwhelmingly internal from terrorism and sectarianism. While inter-Islamic violence is commonplace, and Al Qaida terrorists remain entrenched, Baghdad 2010, probably is not Saigon circ 1975.

Yet, having “turned the page” on the Iraq saga, one fears what the next chapter may reveal.


John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for WorldTribune.com.

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