MOBILE DEVICES
Worldwide Web WorldTribune.com

  Commentary . . .


John Metzler Archive
Monday, June 14, 2010

World [minus Lebanon, Brazil and Turkey] get tough with [frowns] at Iran

UNITED NATIONS — The fourth and latest round of UN sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran are not likely to bottle the nuclear genie and may in fact just turn out to be a “slap on the wrist” to Tehran’s ongoing atomic ambitions. While the Obama Administration garnered a short-term diplomatic gain in the long running dispute with Iran, the price comes with political collateral damage with both Brazil and Turkey, two close American allies, who bitterly oppose the embargo effort.

ShareThis

Also In This Edition

On the positive side, the new sanctions tighten restrictions on Iran’s notorious Revolutionary Guard, the Pasdaran, and the myriad of economic and military enterprises they control. Equally there are bans on conventional military sales to the Islamic Republic as well as adding companies and banks to the blacklist. The resolution was sponsored by France, Germany, United Kingdom and the United States; yet the result proved a pale version of what U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton proposed a year ago.

Yet as President Barack Obama said following the UN vote, “Actions do have consequences, and today the Iranian government will face some of those consequences.”

Contrary to the first three rounds of Iran sanctions, this resolution was not unanimous, failing to get support from Brazil and Turkey, two non-permanent seats on the fifteen member Security Council. Both those countries have invested time and pride in an alternative, most will say vainglorious, plan to defuse the nuclear crisis. Yet even after agreeing to the Turkish plan, Tehran has remained committed to uranium enrichment.

There was also an abstention from Lebanon; many diplomats caution that both Mid-East members of the Council, Turkey and Lebanon, are not on board with the embargo effort.

A pressing issue concerns the growing political rift between Turkey’s Islamic-lite rulers and the Obama Administration. Once close allies, Turkey and the USA have seen a serious deterioration in political relations over the past year; the perceived snub by Washington to Ankara has fueled this Turkish view and probably paranoia of the Erdogan government. Now there’s an intense domestic debate inside Turkey over mortgaging the once-secular state’s interests, reputation, and relations to the lure of political Islam.

What is particularly significant given the political calculus of the Council, was that Russia and People’s Republic of China, two of Iran’s close commercial partners who could have used their crippling veto, at long last decided to join with the USA, Britain and France to back the plan. The price? What we do know is that both Moscow and particularly Beijing got a very watered down resolution which does not slap a serious embargo on the ongoing lucrative energy trade between the countries.

Equally it appears that Obama agreed not to oppose the current Russian billion dollar defense deal planning to deliver S-300 PMU air defense missiles to Iran.in return for Moscow's diplomatic support of the resolution. The new sanctions do not cover defensive military systems, such as S-300 missiles, which the Iranians are purchasing from Russia.

Indeed the new 18 page Security Council resolution substantially fails to seriously tighten the screws on the lifeblood of the Iranian economy—petroleum exports and equally refined gasoline imports.

The document moreover adds though, “Concerned by the proliferation risks presented by the Iranian nuclear program,” the resolution does not in any way compel states to “the use of force or the threat of force.” So the threat of military action remains off the table.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has been involved in clandestine nuclear proliferation while at the same time playing a duplicitous diplomatic game of talking with the international community. Just last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) a Vienna-based UN nuclear watchdog, again warned that the potential military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program make the country a “special case” and called for transparent verification. Since 2003, Iran’s secret nuclear proliferation has challenged the world community, but has not been effectively challenged or contained.

Needless to say Iran poses a clear and stated danger to Israel and probably Western Europe as well.

Not surprisingly the resolution restates the need for continued diplomacy on nuclear issues between Tehran and the international community. Thus we will still encourage negotiations with the Ahmadineijad regime with the hopeful illusion that Iran’s Atomic Ayatollahs will turn their nuclear weapons ambitions into bouquets of roses. The charade continues and the nuclear clock is still ticking.


John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for WorldTribune.com.

About Us     l    Contact Us     l    Geostrategy-Direct.com     l    East-Asia-Intel.com
Copyright © 2010    East West Services, Inc.    All rights reserved.