John Metzler Archive

Suddenly serious about the atomic ayatollahs

The blissful optimism which characterized Obama’s early diplomacy towards Tehran with the underlying theme “we are not Bush, so let’s get along,” was scathingly rebuffed by the Ayatollahs and the wider leadership. The U.S. good intentions were then “played for time” by the Iranians who kept changing the timetable and goal posts of nuclear compliance. Now a year on, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has brought a dose of needed realism to the discussion.

The New York Times wrote, “President Obama’s Iran policy is beginning to look a lot like candidate Clinton’s Iran policy. With the Administration’s efforts to reach out to Iran having failed to produce a response, it is shifting to a more confrontational strategy that is tailor made for Mrs. Clinton, a long-time skeptic of the value of engaging with Tehran.” .

On a recent trip to the Middle East to build diplomatic support for wider economic sanctions, Secretary Clinton stressed a new theme; that Iran was becoming a military dictatorship. Hillary’s assertion that the Revolutionary Guards had assumed control over the political and theocratic reigns in Tehran may be correct, but this in itself will not sell countries on a wider sanctions package. Is she using the shopworn model of isolating the Burma/ Myanmar’s military regime?

Iran poses key security and stability concerns for the world community. First and foremost rests the clear and present danger posed by the country’s nascent nuclear program and the stated willingness by the regime of President Mahmud Admadinejad to develop and use atomic weapons. Though a number of UN sanctions packages have been slapped on Iran, the practical effect has been little more than a slap on the wrist.

Given Admadihad’s boastful pronouncements over nuclear research, the United States, France and importantly Russia sent a letter to the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency warning of Iran’s “capability to produce highly enriched uranium.” Getting Russia on board with a UN sanctions package pushed by the British, the United States and France is a positive diplomatic development.

Yet China, another other veto-holding member of the Security Council may have other plans. The Islamic Republic of Iran engages in a brisk commerce with the rest of the world, though not the United States. According to the Financial Times of London, “China has overtaken the European Union to become Iran’s largest trading partner.” In 2008 trade with the EU stood at $35 billion compared with $29 billion with People’s China. The paper adds that much of Beijing’s commerce with Tehran is channeled though the United Arab Emirates which in fact boost the trade numbers up to $36.5 billion.

Needless to say, most of Iran’s trading partners are importing huge amounts of petroleum while sending machinery and technology and to the Islamic Republic.

Given the cozy commercial ties between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the People’s Republic of China , never mind that Beijing depends on Tehran for at least ten percent of its energy requirements, it is highly unlikely that China would support any serious and biting package of sanctions in the UN Security Council.

The other key issue remains the nature of the regime itself. Having just celebrated the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Republic and the overthrow of the reformist and pro-West Shah of Iran in 1979 by the Ayatollahs, the Tehran rulers nonetheless faces a tarnished political record and deepening crisis of legitimacy. Presidential elections in June of 2009 were marred by widespread fraud. Though Ahmadinejad “won” the contest, the regime itself is divided and now largely supported by the hard line Revolutionary Guards, the feared Pasdaran.

While the Pasdaran, these thuggish guardians of the Islamic regime, have morphed into a ruling circle and business enterprise, even challenging elements in the theocracy, they are keeping Ahmadinejad in power at least for the short run.

Over the past year Iran has gained precious time in approaching the nuclear threshold.

There’s an underlying nervousness among diplomats at the UN that a new confrontation with Iran is brewing. Tougher UN sanctions, should they even pass the Council, may be a moot point as the atomic Ayatollahs may soon raise the crisis to a whole new level. The clock is ticking.