Israel increasingly sees Egypt as potential threat

TEL AVIV — Israeli defense officials no longer hide their concern over what they say is a massive Egyptian conventional arms buildup. They said the most impressive achievements have been in the Egyptian navy. They cite Egypt's procurement of new Ambassador Mk-2 missiles boats and plans for Moray-class submarines and additional frigates.

"They have stuff that is superior to us, particularly in the sea," a senior Israeli defense official said. "The Americans love to sell to them because the Egyptians buy off-the-shelf systems and don't demand modifications or technology transfer."

Israel is urging the United States not to supply new long-range systems to Egypt in its drive to serve as a protector of the Gulf region.

The new prime minister meets President George Bush and senior U.S. officials in Washington next week.

"To the best of my knowledge, Ehud Barak's main concern as defense minister was the bolstering of Egypt's readiness for war," said Israeli parliamentarian Yuval Steinitz, regarded as an expert on Egypt's conventional military capability.

Egypt and the United States plan to discuss a strategic alliance during the visit of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to Washington in April. Mubarak will meet President George Bush on April 2.

Israeli officials have relayed their concern over the prospect that the White House would approve Egypt's drive to participate in Gulf security. They said Cairo's request for weapons and systems meant to form a long-range rapid deployment force could be turned against Israel amid the current mini-war with the Palestinians.

This could involve the U.S. supply of spare parts for aircraft and tank transporters that could enable Egypt to quickly cross the more than 200 kilometers of the Sinai peninsula and sustain weeks of combat with Israel.

"In our discussions with the Americans, they continually tell us that Egypt is no threat to us," an Israeli source involved in the discussions said. "But they have nothing to say when we ask for a guarantee that any weapons given to Egypt for the Gulf would not be used in the Sinai against us."

The issue was raised in January during a visit by National Security Council adviser Uzi Dayan to Washington. A congressional source who followed the visit quoted Dayan as saying that Israel believed that "Egypt is too strong for its own good."

Dayan's visit took place amid rising tension between Egypt and Israel. In January, an ally of Sharon, parliamentarian Avigdor Lieberman, told diplomats that Israel would respond to any Egyptian attack by bombing the Aswan Dam. The remark angered Egyptian leaders, who said they were prepared for any conflict with Israel.

In a meeting with leading strategists in late December, Sharon raised the Egyptian threat. "Let's say Egypt moves troops in Sinai," he told a conference by the Herzliya-based Interdisciplinary Center. "This is a logistical move for Egypt. For Israel, it's an act of war."

Sharon said Israel made a mistake in allowing Egypt to rearm with U.S. weaponry as part of the 1978 peace treaty. "There were things that we didn't see," Sharon said, "that there would be rearmament in Egypt."

U.S. officials maintain that Egypt has no intention of attacking Israel. They have told their Israeli counterparts in numerous forums that the Egyptian military models itself after Israel, regarded as the strongest nation in the Middle East.

At the same time, U.S. officials have dismissed the prospect that Egypt would end its military buildup amid its ambitions to lead the Arab war.

"There was a saying by Mao Tse Tung that power grows out of a barrel of the gun and Middle East elites believe this," Ahmed Hashim, a member of the Virginia-based Center for Naval Analysis, told a recent Israeli forum on the military balance in the Middle East.