Special to WorldTribune.com

Fariborz Saremi

The current dramatic events in the Middle East are largely the continuing story of rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

This strategic game of push and shove has now been going for decades. On the one hand, it is simply a struggle for influence of this globally significant region stretching from the Mediterranean Sea to the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. On the other hand, it is an ideological and religious conflict between the leading Sunni country in the world, Saudi Arabia and its Shia rival Iran.

This conflict has largely been played out beneath the surface through a series of proxy wars. These wars have been conducted both through active armed conflict and on a more diplomatic or soft-power level. Iran has actively supported various groups in their efforts to dominate or influence different key countries in the region. These include: the Lebanon, where Hizbullah has been an Iranian surrogate power; Iraq, where the government is receiving Iranian support; Bahrain and Eastern Saudi Arabia, where Iran has been agitating to undermine Saudi control; and of course, both countries are deeply involved in the nightmare unfolding in Syria.

In fact, both Syria and Iraq represent the final buffer for Iran to the Sunni Middle East. As such they are considered of vital interest to Iran’s well-being in the region. It is essential that the governments in both countries remain stable and dependable partners.

However, there is one other key country for both Saudi Arabia and Iran: Yemen. Iran is currently supporting the concerted push by the Houthis to establish hegemony over the country.

Yemen is a cripplingly poor country fractured by tribal disputes. It is traditionally poorly-governed. However, it is also of major strategic importance for both Iran and Saudi Arabia and the region as a whole. It is located at the southwestern tip of the Persian Gulf peninsula. It borders on Saudi Arabia and owing to poor border security, allows easy access for smugglers or insurgents wishing to enter into Saudi Arabia. It provides an ideal base for Iran to erode Saudi influence, especially since 35 per cent of the population is Shia.

Understandably Saudi Arabia is profoundly concerned about events in Yemen. It cannot possibly allow Iran to gain a foothold in Yemen from where it could push its influence northwards. The sudden success of the Houthis gives Iran a vital edge in the current ever-shifting balance of power.

In this context the recent high-level talks between the Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers should be taken with a pinch of salt. They seem to indicate there is a chance that relations between the two countries could improve and yet both history and the current proxy wars suggest that the talks are simply designed for each to establish how strong the other side really is.

Iran appears to be gaining the upper hand given that it already control four Middle Eastern capitals — Beirut, Baghdad, Damascus and now Sanaa.

Dr.Fariborz Saremi is a strategic analyst based in Hamburg/Germany and a member of the International Strategic Studies Association (ISSA) based in Washington DC, U.S.A.

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