Special to WorldTribune.com

By Fariborz Saremi

As a result of Iran’s presidential election a new and potentially more reformist and conciliatory incumbent occupies that office.

Judging by the explosion of joy in Iran on Saturday June 15th, a large proportion of the Iranian population is certainly hoping a sea-change in Iranian politics. As reasons to celebrate have been rare in the last years, the Iranian people were not going to forgo their chance to indulge in optimism.

The new president, centrist cleric Hassan Rowhani, had not been expected to succeed. In the past his connections were rather with Iran’s traditional conservatives, initially so he was not seen as a potential new spokesman for descendents of the reform movement of 15 years ago.

Iran has been suffering enormous pressures in the last years, both from within, as internal power struggles threatened to blow the ruling elite apart, and because external pressure on Iran to cooperate with international community initiatives in the Middle East made the government sensitive to any attempts at reform or democratization.

Before the election, the establishment was expected to close ranks and frustrate attempts to elect a more reformist candidate. That they did not do so is perhaps the biggest surprise of the election.

Thus Rowhani has become the chosen instrument of change almost by default. The establishment has initiated efforts to re-balance the political system in order to avert potential escalation of the internal feuds. There seems to have been a recognition that the government itself could not continue successfully if it carried on fighting itself.

Moreover, the leading factions have finally come to see that repression of reform movements coupled with the hardships resulting from external sanctions has begun to put an intolerable strain on the population. The people’s desire for a candidate who could offer a way out of this cycle of pressure encouraged them to turn to Rowhani who has taken up the original reformist strategy that sought to use negotiations at the top and pressure from below to effect change.

The elections on June 14, have shown that both the establishment and the population have moved to overcome their respective fears concerning change. In particular citizens’ dissatisfaction with the regime has been so strong that they have suppressed their fear of repression and memories of the brutal government reaction to voice their wish for change.

To everyone’s surprise whether inside or outside Iran, supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the influential hardliners of the IRGC and the intelligent services have made no moves to surpress the people’s choice. This suggests their realization that Iran is in the midst of a huge crisis that requires new thinking. It is not clear, however, whether they have acknowledged their own part in creating that crisis, in particular their intransigence in the matter of the nuclear issue.

It is very difficut to predict how the Revolutionary Leadership will act.

Probably Rowhani will be allowed to reopen negotiations with the the five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany (the P5+1).

If he is too willing to compromise he can be condemned for selling out Iranian strategic interests. If he soft-soaps the P5+1 into accepting a compromise more beneficial to Iran, such as restricting Iran’s stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium, he can be given support as this will benefit the whole regime

Having said that, the crucial factor still remains the same. The radical commanders of the IRGC still control and command any theoretical Iranian nuclear weapon, not Rowhani as the president.

The most positive aspect of the new situation post-election is that the Iranian people have hinted that indeed they are responsive to leverages applied to restricting Iranian nuclear policy and that the regime remains undecided about the best way forward. This should encourage Western negotiators to enter into negotiations with a proactive and confident frame of mind.

Dr Fariborz Saremi is a strategic analyst based in Hamburg/Germany and a regular contributor for World Tribune.com, Freepressers.com and Defense&Foreign Affairs.

  Ali Khamenei, but new president would not control nukes, Hassan Rowhani, IRGC, The Iranians speak: All sides saw need for change; New president would not control nukes