John J. Metzler

UNITED NATIONS — As civil war, political stalemate, and the tragic humanitarian hemorrhage of refugees continues, Syria approaches its third winter of conflict.

With over 120,000 people killed and large parts of this ancient land in ruins or chaos from the conflict between the Assad Family dictatorship and a fractious collection of rebel groups, many of them Islamist extremists, the misplaced hopes of the “Arab Spring” have turned into the Syrian Winter.

According to the UN ‘s humanitarian coordinator, Valerie Amos, “The humanitarian situation in Syria continues to deteriorate rapidly and inexorably.’”

Briefing the UN Security Council, Amos stressed that “the number of people we estimate to be in need of humanitarian assistance has now risen to 9.3 million; of them 6.5 million are displaced from their homes within the country.”

More than two million Syrians have fled across frontiers as refugees into neighboring Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan.

The World Food Program is feeding a record 3.3 million people throughout the beleaguered Middle Eastern country; the number is expected to jump to four million by December. Stunningly, these numbers emerge from a pre-conflict population of 22 million.

The landscape of chaos in which schools, hospitals and mosques have been wrecked or damaged poses a humanitarian hurdle both for the UN and scores of relief agencies who are trying to coordinate assistance in the midst of an ongoing conflict.

Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN’s political point-man for resolving the crisis, conceded with near resignation, “The only solution to the humanitarian crisis is a political solution to the crisis. “ He added, “There is no military solution. The government is not going to win and the opposition is not going to win.”

Syria’s religious and ethnic mosaic reflects the country’s ancient heritage on the crossroads of civilizations as much as a potent political fault-line between the majority Muslim Sunnis and the minority, but ruling, Alawite/Shia sect.

As the conflict spread, the rebels targeted the Christian community as well as Kurdish and Druze minorities.

Finding an elusive political formula in a deadlocked UN Security Council has been precarious at best. Since the start of the conflict, world powers have predictably lined up behind either the side of the Syrian government (Russia and China), or the rebels (France, the United Kingdom and the United States). Hundreds of British and French, mostly Muslim nationals, are fighting alongside the rebels; Iranian militia and even North Korean helicopter pilots are aiding Assad.

Little changed in the political calculus until the Council was confronted with chemical weapons use in a Damascus suburb in August and the ensuing global outrage which caused the Obama Administration to nearly blunder into military action with little American domestic or international support.

What did emerge from the September showdown was a UN Security Council resolution demanding the Damascus government to come clean on its longtime chemical weapons program and to rid the country of the stockpiles. Now there’s real and notable progress on the chemical weapons threat. Sigrid Kaag, the UN’s Special Coordinator for overseeing the destruction of the weapons, said that “under difficult circumstances” the Syrian government was “cooperating constructively” with the Mission.

Ms. Kaag, a Netherlands national, stressed that Syria’s weapons “production facilities have been rendered inoperable.”

She added, “Particular discussions are ongoing to as to the complete elimination of the chemical weapons themselves.” In other words, a significant first step has been taken and now accomplished with Syria’s cooperation.

Now comes the more difficult task of destroying the actual stockpiles, very likely performed in another country.

Returning to the political solution, China’s Ambassador, Liu Jieyi, stated that the recent Security Council resolution outlined two goals : the destruction of chemical weapons facilities and stockpiles and advancing the political process through the Geneva II Conference.

While stressing a “political solution was the only viable way out of Syria’s problems,” China was concerned that “things are not progressing as smoothly as we would wish.”
A planned Geneva peace conference depends largely on U.S. and Russian arm- twisting to bring together both a gaggle of rebel factions, many of them Islamist extremists and Al Qaida offshoots, alongside a grudging Syrian government supported by Moscow. Sitting down is the first step; getting the warring parties to agree to peace is yet another matter.

John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for WorldTribune.com. He is the author of Transatlantic Divide ; USA/Euroland Rift (University Press, 2010).

  Bashar Assad, Lakhdar Brahimi, Sigrid Kaag, Syrian Winter: Only advance from intractable conflict is in human suffering, UN Security Council, Valerie Amos, World Food Program