Special to WorldTribune.com

By Gregory R. Copley, Editor, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs

Saudi Arabia’s leadership succession restructuring and Cabinet reshuffle on April 29, offered important clues for the strategic shape of the region in the coming few years, and these may not be positive for the Kingdom.

The leadership changes pulled the Kingdom back into its historically conservative shell — even though the changes were billed in the media as bringing youth to the succession process — and this will serve to further alienate the Nejdi, Wahhabist Sunni ruling group from the Kingdom’s Shi’a population in the East and South of Saudi Arabia.

Rather than moving to represent all of the Kingdom’s communities, the Crown has reasserted its model of top-down leadership. Much of this is a result of Saudi Arabia’s indirect war with Iran and Shi’ism, which the House of Sa’ud regards as an existential competition.

The change in the Saudi succession lineup also reflected a profound internal success for the Sudairi side of the Royal Family, and a success for U.S. President Barack Obama, who had strenuously opposed the rise of King ‘Abdullah’s designated second-in-line, Prince Muqrin bin Abd al-’Aziz.

In the shuffle, carried out in the name of King Salman bin ‘Abd al-’Aziz al Sa’ud — who is suffering from Alzheimer’s Disease and almost certainly did not make the changes on his own initiative — Prince Muqrin was relieved of his post as Crown Prince, to be replaced by the Obama favorite, Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayif bin ‘Abd al-’Aziz al Sa’ud.

Prince Mohammed is a strong and capable official, however, and has been ruthless in suppressing opponents of the Crown, including Al Qaida-affiliated jihadists. His elevation to Crown Prince is of great significance, and puts the Sudairi side of the family (the male descendants of King ‘Abd al-’Aziz’s marriage to Hassa bint Ahmed al Sudairi, a member of the powerful Sudairi clan in Nejd, whence the Wahhabi ideology emerged nearly 300 years ago) back in control of the Kingdom.

There is a question as to whether the current confrontation in Yemen between Saudi Arabia and Iran — where both powers have come out in favor of their respective clients — helped trigger the change in the succession. There is also a question as to whether the National Guard, controlled by the late King ‘Abdullah’s branch of the family (the perceived rivals of the Sudairi clique), was fully on board with the plan to throw all of the Kingdom’s resources, including the National Guard, into the war against the Shi’a Houthi “rebel” group in Yemen, given that there seemed no strategy or endgame to the Saudi war. Or whether the ‘Abdullah line, under the now-removed Crown Prince Muqrin, had sought to use the division over the handling of the Yemen war — operations Decisive Storm and Restoring Hope — to remove the King on health grounds.

The government’s decision to commit the National Guard to securing the border, with a deployment to the Najran region on the Yemen border, on April 21, may have brought the internal leadership crisis to a head.

Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis noted on Jan. 6, anticipating the passing of King ‘Abdullah: “Prince Muqrin, currently an adviser to the King and a ‘special envoy with the rank of minister’, faces the reality that the Sudeiri faction of the Royal Family is anxious to resume its control of the throne. But he has the support of the King’s son, Prince Mutaib bin ‘Abdallah bin ‘Abd al-’Aziz al Sa’ud, 62 or 63 (alternately transliterated as Prince Mitib), the Minister for the Saudi Arabian National Guard (SANG), which he once commanded, as did his father, the King. Mutaib is also on the black list of the Obama White House.

Prince Mutaib was sent by King ‘Abdullah to Washington on Nov. 19, 2014, and met with President Obama; that meeting was regarded as ‘a disaster’, because he spoke on Iran, DI’ISH, Egypt, and Syria-Iraq in ways which went against the White House views. The Obama White House now considers Muqrin, Mutaib and their ‘‘Abdullah camp’ as as major obstacles to Obama’s determination to establish Iran as a regional power at the expense of the Arab world. Significantly, both Muqrin and Mutaib are Anglophiles and ardent supporters of the UK’s return to a prominent role in securing the Persian Gulf (at the expense of the U.S. monopoly).”

What do the changes portend?

• Internal security measures will increase within the Kingdom, and further attempts will carefully be made to wrest control of the National Guard from Prince Mutaib;
• The U.S. Obama Administration will put increased resources in support of Saudi Arabia’s anti-Houthi war, not only to support the Sudairi leadership in Saudi, but also to pressure Iran toward quickly concluding the “nuclear deal”;
• Saudi Arabia has moved further away from a chance of a negotiated balance with Iran;
• Egypt is forced, because of Riyadh’s generous support of Cairo when the Egypt-U.S. rift occurred in 2014, to support Saudi Arabia’s Yemen moves, but other allies (such as Pakistan) will not. Will the Kingdom’s revived rapprochement with the U.S. enable President Obama to urge a scaling back of Saudi support for Egypt?

The Actual Changes

The Government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on April 29, announced — in the name of King Salman bin ‘Abd al-’Aziz al Sa’ud — changes in the succession line, and in the Cabinet. Deputy Prime Minister and Crown Prince Muqrin bin Abd al-’Aziz was relieved of his position, without explanation, and was replaced by Minister of Interior and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayif bin ‘Abd al-’Aziz al Sa’ud, who was to retain his position as Minister of Defense. King Salman’s son, Minister of Defense & Aviation Prince Mohammed bin Salman, 30, was named Deputy Crown Prince. He, too, would retain his ministerial portfolio.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Sa’ud al-Faisal bin ‘Abd al-’Aziz al Sa’ud was replaced by Saudi Ambassador to the U.S., Adel al-Jubeir, who became the first non-member of the Royal Family to hold the ministry. The King’s statement said that the changes had been approved by a majority of members of the Royal Family’s Allegiance Council, which acts as the succession control body. Former Crown Prince Muqrin pledged his allegiance to the new Crown Prince and his Deputy.

The head of State oil firm Aramco, Khalid al-Falih, was named as the new Health Minister. A new Aramco CEO has not been named but analysts said oil policy was not likely to change. Minister of Health Abdallah al-Rubay’a had been dismissed on April 22, but not in relationship to the April 29, shuffle. Deputy Education Minister Norah Al Fayez, the only woman in the Saudi Ministry, was also dismissed; she had been advocating greater flexibility in the education of girls; this, too, was known to be coming after opposition to her from religious leaders had been publicized in early April. Her removal, however, was seen as a sign of increased conservatism within the top leadership, which consolidated its position with the dismissal of Crown Prince Muqrin.

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