Special to WorldTribune.com

WASHINGTON — Saudi King Abdullah, hospitalized for what was termed pneumonia, has been sidelined, a report said.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy asserted that the king, believed to be as old as 98, could be out of commission for weeks as he sought to recover from what the royal family said was pneumonia. In a report, the institute warned that the king’s inability to function would prompt a battle within the second generation of princes.

“With King Abdullah in the hospital, the West should be bracing for a stormy succession battle in the House of Saud,” the report, titled “Royal Roulette,” said.

The report, dated Jan. 7, said that until his hospitalization Abdullah managed to maintain his position as the leading decision-maker in the Gulf Cooperation Council kingdom.

Author Simon Henderson, deemed a leading U.S. analyst on the Gulf, said Abdullah ended the GCC crisis with Qatar and ordered the biggest reshuffle of the Cabinet in Saudi history.

“Even if Abdullah suffers no health setbacks, the king is probably going to be out of the picture for a few weeks, dealing with the aftereffects of pneumonia,” the report said. “That is a big enough challenge.”

The report doubted the prospect that Abdullah, who entered the hospital on Dec. 31, 2014, would cede authority to Crown Prince Salman, said to be suffering from dementia. Salman and particularly his son were said to comprise a royal faction vying for succession.

“The kingdom’s leadership is arguably actually at a crossroads, with two royal factions vying for preeminence,” the report said. “The outcome could produce a whole range of new faces in positions of power in Riyad.”

Henderson said the new Saudi leadership to emerge after Abdullah death or incapacitation could be inexperienced in ruling the kingdom. He dismissed Western expectations that Abdullah would abdicate and transfer the monarchy to deputy Crown Prince Prince Muqrin, the youngest surviving son of Saudi founder Abdul Aziz.

The report questioned whether Washington and its NATO allies should “encourage” the Saudi ruling family to promote the most experienced prince as Abdullah’s successor.

Henderson did not rule out the succession of Salman, who would then appoint his full brother, Ahmed, as crown prince.

“There is at least one argument that should trump the institutional conservatism in the palaces of Riyad: Given the regional threats in the Middle East, making a muddled decision on a leader now could threaten the future of the royal house itself,” the report said.

  Saudi King’s king’s pneumonia seen triggering ‘stormy succession battle’, WorldTribune.com