Special to WorldTribune.com

WASHINGTON — The U.S. intelligence community, while still assuring
allies of his regime’s imminent collapse, determined as early as April 2013
that President Bashar Assad was reversing Sunni rebel gains in Syria.

The State Department issued a classified briefing on June 10 that warned
of a rebel defeat, particularly that of the Western-backed Free Syrian Army,
in the more than two-year-old war against Assad.

Amid the briefing, the department and other agencies in the administration of President Barack Obama insisted that the Assad regime was disintegrating.

“We are headed toward our worst case scenario: rebel gains evaporating, the moderate opposition — including [FSA chief] Salim Idriss — imploding, large ungoverned spaces, Assad holding on indefinitely, neighbors endangered, and Iran, Hizbullah, and Iraqi militias taking root,” the State Department said.

On Oct. 23, the New York Times disclosed the State Department briefing on Syria, asserting that Obama avoided any commitment to help militarily the Sunni rebels. The newspaper said Obama determined that Syria would divert the administration from its main foreign policy goals during his second term — reconciliation with Iran and the establishment of a
Palestinian state.

The State Department briefing came amid assurances by the U.S.
intelligence community to such allies as Israel and Saudi Arabia that the
rebels were gaining ground in the war against Assad. Officials acknowledged
that the U.S. assurances flew in the face of major rebel defeats in
southwestern and central Syria.

The Times said the U.S. intelligence community already warned in the
beginning of 2013 of a rebel collapse. The new assessment, which reversed
more than a year of predictions of Assad’s imminent collapse, determined
that the Syrian Army was stabilized and that Iran had replenished arms and
munitions.

“The opposite was true for the rebels, who were running out of
ammunition and supplies,” the newspaper said. “Morale was low, American spy
agencies concluded, and Qaida-linked groups like the Nusra Front were
becoming increasingly dominant in the rebellion.”

The newspaper report confirmed what Western diplomats had asserted for
nearly a year regarding Obama’s policy toward Syria. The Times said Obama
was set against helping any military campaign to oust Assad even as the
intelligence community warned that the Syrian president was ordering
chemical weapons attacks against civilians.

“Even as the debate about arming the rebels took on a new urgency, Mr.
Obama rarely voiced strong opinions during senior staff meetings,” the Times
said. “But current and former officials said his body language was telling:
he often appeared impatient or disengaged while listening to the debate,
sometimes scrolling through messages on his BlackBerry or slouching and
chewing gum.”

Under pressure from Congress and some of his aides, Obama ordered a
review of U.S. policy in the Middle East. A senior official told the Times
that the president wanted to include Syria as part of a “broader strategy
involving both Iran and the Middle East peace process.”

Obama was now said to have retreated from plans to expand
military support for Sunni rebels, confined to CIA training of scores of
recruits in Jordan. The Times said the administration was focusing on
implementing a United Nations Security Council resolution to dismantle
Assad’s CW stockpile.

“While the training mission in Jordan continues, officials now say there
is no immediate plan to drastically expand it under the Pentagon’s control,”
the newspaper said. “The White House appears to be concerned that a public
effort might undermine the diplomatic initiative to remove Syria’s chemical
weapons stockpiles and convene a peace conference.”

  Bashar Assad, Free Syrian Army, Nusra Front, Report: Obama insisted Assad regime was collapsing while intel showed rebel defeat, Salim Idriss, U.S. State Department