Special to WorldTribune.com

TEL AVIV — Israel is debating the ramifications of maintaining a small Army, a report said.

The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Affairs said that the military would be challenged in downsizing its ground forces. In a report, the center said the new multi-year plan was based on an assessment that Israel Defense
Forces would focus on low-intensity warfare.

“Reducing the number of military brigades and dissolving reserve infantry units could weaken the IDF’s efficiency in coping with low-intensity challenges,” the report, titled “Can the IDF Afford a Small Army?” said. “Moreover, a large number of troops are needed to deal with multi-front scenarios, the chances of which may increase in the future.”

Dated July 18, author Avi Kober, a professor and former Defense Ministry analyst, warned that the new military plan envisioned an end to large-scale conventional wars. He said the plan reflected an assessment that the military could reduce ground forces while relying heavily on air power.

“The IDF unveiled a new plan, promising a smaller yet smarter Army,” the report said. “However, the IDF must take into consideration that a smaller military comes with a price, as even the low-intensity conflicts for which the IDF is preparing require a large number of troops to enable the army to succeed.”

The military plan was said to have been based on models for the ratio of
troops to enemy civilian population, which falls within a range of between
20 and 25 troops. The new U.S. Army counter-insurgency field manual has
recommended a minimum ratio of 20 troops per 1,000 local residents.

Kober, citing the Israel Army manpower shortage in the 2006 war with
Lebanon, dismissed the U.S. troop-to-civilian ratio. He said insurgents
could infiltrate civilian communities to attack occupying forces.

“In asymmetrical conflicts it is difficult, and sometimes impossible, to
rely on a small number of troops using high-tech equipment to destroy a
sophisticated guerrilla force, capture the terrain from which guerrilla
warfare is conducted, achieve decisive victory on the battlefield, or
destroy rockets launchers used by insurgents against populated areas,” the
report said. “Even the staunchest advocates of small but smart militaries
would admit that sometimes a massive traditional army may be needed even in
low-intensity conflicts.”

The report said the Israeli manpower shortage in the 34-day war against
Lebanon in 2006 stemmed from a failure to develop Army reserve units. As a
result, the military command eliminated reserve units and reduced reserve
mobilization.

“In the war the army paid dearly for these changes,” the report said.
“No matter how operationally or technologically sophisticated an army is, a
force operating in low-intensity conflicts must be large if the army wishes
to be effective.”

  Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Affairs, Israel Defense Forces, reliance on air power, Report questions wisdom of downsizing Israel’s Army, troop-to-civilian ratio