Special to WorldTribune.com

LONDON — A leading Western think tank has determined that the West
Bank was heading toward a Palestinian revolt.

The International Crisis Group has determined that Palestinians were
preparing to revolt against Israeli rule in the West Bank and Jerusalem. The
Brussels-based think tank, said the PA, despite massive foreign aid, was
also undergoing steady deterioration amid the rise of Hamas.

“Many conditions for an uprising are objectively in place: political
discontent, lack of hope, economic fragility, increased violence and an
overwhelming sense that security cooperation serves an Israeli — not
Palestinian — interest,” the report, titled “Buying Time? Money, Guns and
Politics in the West Bank,” said.

The report, dated May 29, said another revolt in the West Bank would be
different from previous Palestinian conflicts with Israel. ICG said Palestinians, despite lack of support, could choose a new round of violence rather than the status quo.

“At some point — and triggered by an unexpected event — Palestinians
may well decide their long-run well-being would be better served by
instability, and only by rocking the boat might they come closer to their
desired destination,” the report said. “The result likely will differ from
the second intifada, as the second differed markedly from the first. But
short of steps to unify and reinforce the legitimacy of Palestinian
institutions and move Israelis and Palestinians toward a comprehensive
peace, another destabilizing event sooner or later is inevitable. In buying
time, aid dollars go only so far.”

The report said 2012 marked the most tumultuous year for the PA since
Hamas seized the Gaza Strip in 2007. ICG said the West Bank, which saw the
resignation of Prime Minister Salam Fayad in April 2013, was undergoing
rising instability and insecurity that “palliative measures can help contain
but can neither reverse nor end in the absence of a broad political
settlement.”

“The ‘collapse’ of the PA is less likely to be a discrete event, and its
‘dissolution’ less a matter of conscious intent, than a process: the gradual
hollowing out of institutions that were never particularly strong,” the
report said.

The report dismissed the prospect of peace talks with Israel or
additional foreign aid as stabilizing Palestinian society in the West Bank.
ICG warned that the PA was not seen as legitimate by most Palestinians and
that many of them could decide that renewed violence could be more
beneficial than the current stalemate.

“If aid money has bought time, time has not changed the nature of the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, cannot provide insurance against a
deteriorating political-security situation and cannot purchase the kind of
legitimacy the Palestinian leadership will need to control and guide its
people.” ICG deputy Middle East program director Robert Blecher said.

  International Crisis Group, Jerusalem, Report: Palestinians headed for an uprising with the rise of Hamas, Salam Fayad, West Bank deteriorates