Special to WorldTribune.com

TEL AVIV — The Israeli intelligence community has assessed that the
ouster of Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi would not restore stability to
the Arab power.

Israeli sources said the intelligence community warned the government of
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Egypt was being swept
up in long-term turbulence. They said the community envisioned up to a
decade of instability for Israel’s western neighbor.

“The security establishment estimates that the region will continue to be very unstable for at least five to 10 years at least,” Israeli defense analyst Amir Rappaport said.

The sources said Israeli intelligence agencies detected signs of the collapse of the Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt in the spring of 2013. They cited increasing dissatisfaction by Egypt’s military with Morsi and his
tolerance of Hamas and other insurgency militias in the Sinai Peninsula and other region.

At the same time, ordinary Egyptians, including devout Muslims, were deemed increasingly frustrated with the decline of the economy, including fuel shortages. The sources said Morsi’s Islamist rhetoric failed to garner either domestic or Gulf Arab support.

“Once the people understand that the Koran cannot solve problems like
unemployment and hunger, Morsi and his regime would barely last a year,”
Rappaport said.

Other Israeli sources confirmed the assessment. They said the decline of
the Morsi regime would be felt in security efforts in Egypt’s turbulent
Sinai Peninsula, believed to contain up to 10,000 insurgents.

A key question for Israel concerned Egypt’s military. The sources said
the intelligence community has been closely monitoring the behavior of the
army and air force toward the protest movement as Cairo was receiving 20
F-16 Block 52 multi-role fighters from the United States.

“Will these new aircraft assuage the military or whet its appetite for
conflict?” a source asked.

In an analysis for the Israeli daily Maariv on July 2, Rappaport said
domestic instability in Egypt would reduce the prospect of war with Israel.
He said the Muslim Brotherhood regime had intended to eventually cancel the
Egyptian peace treaty with Israel.

“On the one hand, the failure of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood’s
attempt at governing is good for Israel in the long-term,” Rappaport said.
“[But] the news from Egypt is not positive for Israel in the short-term.”

  Amir Rappaport, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli intelligence predicts long-term Egypt turbulence, Mohammed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood