Special to WorldTribune.com

TEL AVIV — Israel’s intelligence community has assessed that Egypt’ existing government
could decline rapidly in wake of the huge Islamic victory in parliamentary
elections.

Israeli sources said the intelligence community was stunned by the
victory of the Muslim Brotherhood and its Salafist allies in parliamentary
elections in late November. They said the Brotherhood would quickly seek to
change Egypt’s domestic and foreign policy in what could lead to a
confrontation with the military regime.

“Events are moving faster and more dramatically than anybody expected,” an Israeli source said.

On Dec. 4, the Brotherhood was reported to have overwhelmed its secular rivals and won at least 40 percent of the vote. The Brotherhood’s new allies, called Salafists and said to be inspired by Al Qaida, also reported significant gains, winning 20 percent, far more than forecast. The secular Egyptian bloc received 15 percent.

“We call upon everyone, and all those who associate themselves with democracy, to respect the will of the people and accept their choice,” the Brotherhood said in a statement.

Israeli sources said the Brotherhood and Salafists would work together to rapidly change Egypt into an Islamic state. They said the new alliance would also increase Egyptian support for the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip, which receives hundreds of millions of dollars worth of weapons and fuel smuggled from the neighboring Sinai Peninsula.

“Israel views this scenario as a diplomatic catastrophe that would
require a fundamental change in our national security outlook and would
deeply affect our strategic position,” Israeli military analyst Alex Fishman
said.

Fishman, in an analysis for Israel’s Yediot Aharonot newspaper on Dec.
4, portrayed a widening gap Israel and the United States regarding the
prospect of an Islamic Egypt. Fishman said Washington was pressing the
military regime in Cairo to transfer power to the winners of the
parliamentary elections despite the Islamic threat to the region.

“They did the same thing with the Shah [of Iran] and with Mubarak, and
thus they are doing with the Egyptian generals: Hand Egypt over to the
Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists, on a silver platter,” Fishman said.

The Israeli assessment envisions a Brotherhood-Salafist victory for
president should the military honor its pledge to conduct such elections by
mid-2012. Another option was that the military reach an agreement to share
power with the Brotherhood, seen by the intelligence community as
increasingly unlikely.

“This [Islamic election victory] is very disturbing,” Israeli Defense
Minister Ehud Barak said.

The Israeli military has been bolstering its forces along the
202-kilometer border with Egypt. The sources said over the last few months,
the Israel Army has doubled the number of battalions deployed from the
southern city of Eilat to the Gaza Strip.

The sources said the military was concerned that Brotherhood elements
could be working with Hamas and other Palestinians to launch a series of
strikes on Israel in wake of the Islamic victory in Egypt. They said the
attacks were meant to elicit a violent Israeli reaction that would further
erode relations with Egypt.

“These attacks could take place at any time,” the Israeli source said.

  Al Qaida, Ehud Barak, Eilat, Gaza Strip, Israel sees ‘disturbing’ Egypt election outcome as ‘diplomatic catastrophe’, Muslim Brotherhood, Salafists, Sinai Peninsula