John J. Metzler

UNITED NATIONS — The raging civil war in Syria has dominated headlines as well as both the debate and emotions at the UN General Assembly. But beyond the grisly statistics with over 100,000 people killed as well as the toxic political aftermath of chemical weapons use, there remain three other glaring, but often overlooked, issues.

First, there’s a widening humanitarian crisis. An outpouring of refugees from the country, but even larger numbers of internally displaced civilians inside Syria, now involves nearly one quarter of the population.

UN humanitarian agencies point to a frightening calculus of crisis. Of Syria’s population of 21 million, 2 million are refugees who fled the country, and a further 4.2 million are internally displaced persons. Funding for food aid and medical assistance is stretched to the limit and only about half the promised funds have been delivered by donor states.

Second this humanitarian tragedy has morphed into a regional crisis with geopolitical ramifications.

Neighboring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and even Iraq have become a haven for the human tide. These high refugee numbers in neighboring countries are clearly destabilizing.

According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), “One-tenth of Jordan’s population is currently composed of refugees, and nearly 25 percent of Lebanon’s population by the end of the year is expected to be made up of registered and non-registered refugees concentrated in already-poor and vulnerable regions.”

Comparative analysis puts the tragedy into stunning view beyond statistics. The UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) states that over 750,000 Syrians have sought safety in Lebanon. Projections see the number reaching one million by the end of 2013. This is eighteen percent of tiny Lebanon’s entire population; a similar refugee influx would translate as 57 million refugees into the USA or 91 million into the European Union.

Neighboring Jordan has absorbed over 525, 000 Syrians while Turkey has accepted more than 500,000. Some 200,000 Syrians have fled to Iraq as well.

Third, despite the stunning horrors or chemical weapons use allegedly by the Assad regime, so much of the global outrage has centered on people killed by these toxic weapons and not the wider 98 percent of casualties killed by conventions weapons.

While the Obama administration nearly fumbled into a military conflict over Syria, with few allies and no UN support, the reality remains that the sectarian killing has widened and has less to do with toxins than toxic hatred often along Islamic religious divides and with the Christian minority a particular target.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon stated; “We can hardly be satisfied with destroying chemical weapons while the wider war is still destroying Syria. The vast majority of the killing and the atrocities have been carried out with conventional weapons.”

Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul said it well: “This conflict neither began with the use of chemical weapons, nor will it end with an agreement to eliminate them. We therefore bluntly reject any position that is not troubled by the killing of innocent people in itself, but only by the means of such killing. Such an approach is immoral and totally unacceptable.”

He stressed, “I cannot emphasize this enough; Agreement on chemical weapons must not be allowed to substitute for a comprehensive political strategy to address the situation in Syria.”

While President Gul warned that “we cannot and shall not leave the Syrian people to their fate,” finding a political solution to defuse the crisis remains elusive. While the UN Security Council at long last unanimously agreed to locate, monitor, disarm and destroy Syria’s chemical arsenal (déjà vu of open-ended Iraqi weapons inspections years before 2003), the fact remains that creating and enforcing a durable political settlement for a political transition in Damascus seems not on the horizon.

Austrian President Heinz Fischer put the matter into perspective; “By now the civil war in Syria heavily affects all neighboring countries. The conflict is a Syrian one; the consequences go far beyond its borders, it has indeed, become international.”

Indeed the geopolitical chess game continues with both Russia and Turkey clearly committed to their national interests in Syria. Islamic fundamentalist and jihadi groups are equally focused on the “struggle” in Syria which has emerged as a rallying-point for foreign extremists from Europe and the Middle East.

John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He writes weekly for WorldTribune.com. He is the author of Transatlantic Divide ; USA/Euroland Rift (University Press, 2010).

  Abdullah Gul, Ban Ki-Moon, Bashar Assad, geopolitical impact of Syrian war expanding to an international crisis, Human, UN General Assembly, UN High Commission for Refugees