Special to WorldTribune.com

WASHINGTON — The U.S. intelligence community, in wake of what
officials acknowledged was a mistaken assessment, has envisioned an
indefinite Sunni revolt in Syria.

Officials said the intelligence community has determined that Syrian
President Bashar Assad was gaining the upper hand in the 27-month revolt.
But they said the community did not envision the collapse of the revolt amid
aid from Arab allies, particularly Saudi Arabia.

“My concern is that it could go on for a long time,” Defense Intelligence Agency deputy director David Shedd said. “It is in large measure a stalemate.”

In an address to the Aspen Security Forum on July 20, Shedd relayed the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment on the war in Syria. He outlined two scenarios for Syria: one in which Assad would win; and the other in which the rebels, particularly the Al Qaida-aligned Nusra Front for the Defense of the Levant, would take over the country.

“They [rebels] will fight for that space,” Shedd said. “They’re there for the long haul.”

Officials said DIA’s assessment on the Syrian war differed from others
in the intelligence community. They said DIA dismissed assertions that Assad
was on the verge of collapse in 2012.

“DIA’s position was that Assad’s fall was no earlier than the start of
this year,” Shedd said. “And it’s obviously not happened.”

Officials said the Assad regime, backed by Iran and Russia, was
overrunning rebel strongholds throughout central and southern Syria. But
they said the Assad offensive could be reversed.

“Currently, the tide seems to have shifted in his [Assad] favor,” Gen.
Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on July
18.

Shedd agreed. He said the rebels, many of them directed by Al Qaida in
Pakistan, could continue their fight for years through support from the Gulf
Cooperation Council.

“Over the last two years they’ve grown in size, they’ve grown in
capability, and ruthlessly have grown in effectiveness,” Shedd said. “Al
Qaida Iraq will emerge stronger as a result of its experience inside of
Syria.”

Shedd said the opposition to Assad was in disarray. He reported the
emergence of 1,200 opposition groups, led by such Al Qaida militias as Nusra
and the new Islamic State of Iraq and Levant.

“If Bashar Assad were to succeed, he will be a more ruthless leader who
will live with a legacy of tens of thousands of his civilians killed under
him,” Shedd said. “If he loses and goes to an enclave inside there, I think
there will be ongoing civil war for years to come.”

  David Shedd, Defense Intelligence Agency, DIA differed from U.S. intel assessment of Assad’s demise, Gen. Martin Dempsey, Gulf Cooperation Council, now calls Syria a ‘stalemate’, Nusra Front