Special to WorldTribune.com

Donald Trump continues to shock the Republican establishment and confound critics in liberal newsrooms. But could an uber rich, charismatic celebrity with no political experience emerge as a political juggernaut in Israel where Trump has promised to visit soon?

Not likely, according to the Jerusalem Post.

The closest instance occurred in 2012, the Post said, when “two political neophytes — Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid — shook up Israel’s politics in a raucous election campaign. Lapid, a popular news anchor and author, founded a new party claiming to represent Israel’s political center.

Bennett, a high-tech mogul, became chair of the religious Zionist Jewish Home party and attracted throngs of new supporters, focusing on hawkish politics and housing reform.”

“The Trump party — let’s call it ‘Make Israel Great Again’ — could be formed without primaries. But he’d almost definitely not win the prime ministership.

“In the U.S., the open primaries give celebrities like Trump an opportunity to gain a following and (possibly) capture the mantle of a major party. Winning the nomination, in turn, would give Trump a reasonable shot at winning the presidency,” the Post said.

“But in Israel, voters cast ballots for a party, not a person. And only three Israeli parties — Likud, Labor and Jewish Home — have open, American-style primaries where ordinary Israelis can vote directly for candidates. You can vote in the primaries only if you’re a card-carrying member of one of those parties.”

In the 2015 elections, only 125,000 of Israel’s nearly 6 million eligible voters cast ballots in the primaries.

“And primaries in Israel aren’t the free-for-all they are in the U.S. In Israel’s political culture, career politicians like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Opposition Leader Issac Herzog tend to stick around, win or lose,” the Post said.

“Unlike Mitt Romney or John Kerry, there’s no expectation that party leaders will step aside following a loss. Shimon Peres stayed atop Labor for 15 years despite failing to win four straight elections. When Herzog lost the election in March, he remained Labor chairman and hoped for a better result next time.”

So an Israeli Trump would have a much larger mountain to climb in order to be elected prime minister. In Israel, the Post pointed out, a candidate with no political experience has never won a major party’s top spot.

“In America, commanding 30 percent of Republican primary voters can catapult you to winning the nomination and having the support of nearly half the country. In Israel, leaders of new parties rarely gain more than 15 percent of voters. If Trump were polling in Israel like he is in America, he’d expect to win 18 seats — good enough to make his party the third-largest in Knesset.

“Would Trump be satisfied with winning third place? Or would that make him, dare we say, a loser?”

  Benjamin Netanyahu, Could a Donald Trump happen in Israel?, Jewish Home, Labor, Likud, Shimon Peres, WorldTribune.com