Special to WorldTribune.com

WASHINGTON — A leading U.S. think tank has assessed that Iran was ready to assemble its first nuclear weapon.

The Institute for Science and International Security, which reviewed a series of scenarios, determined that Iran was one month away from full nuclear weapons capability.

In a report, the Washington-based institute said Teheran, with a 6.7 ton stockpile of low-enriched as well as 20 percent enriched uranium, was approaching “breakout time,” or the period in which uranium could be converted to bomb-grade material.

The report said Iran’s stockpile of highly-enriched uranium has doubled over the last year, with the IR-1 centrifuge fleet increasing from 12,000 in 2012 to 19,000 today. ISIS, citing IAEA difficulty in determining the capabilities of Iranian centrifuges, said this would enable an immediate capability to rapidly produce weapons-grade uranium.

“These substantial changes merit updating our previous breakout
estimates of the time Iran would need to produce one significant quantity of
weapon-grade uranium, taken as 25 kilograms of WGU, using its existing
safeguarded nuclear facilities and low enriched uranium stocks as of August
2013,” the report said.

“Combined with its dramatically increased centrifuge capability, these stockpiles bolster Iran’s latent capability to manufacture a nuclear weapon.”

The report, based on Iranian and International Atomic Energy Agency
statements, came amid a drive by the administration of President Barack
Obama to ease U.S. sanctions on Teheran. The ISIS assessment disputed that
of Obama, who said Iran was one year away from accumulating an enriched
uranium stockpile sufficient for its first nuclear bomb.

“The Senate should move forward immediately with a new round of
sanctions to prevent Iran from acquiring an undetectable breakout
capability,” Sen. Mark Kirk, an Illinois Republican, said.

Institute director David Albright, a former IAEA inspector, has
regularly been invited to testify to Congress. Albright said Iran’s new
breakout capabilities must be considered amid the current negotiations with
Teheran.

“The shortening breakout times have implications for any negotiation
with Iran,” Albright said.

ISIS outlined several scenarios of an Iranian nuclear breakout. One
scenario was that Iran has maintained a covert nuclear weapons program and
conducted missile warhead tests in underground facilities.

“If Iran successfully produced enough WGU for a nuclear weapon, the
ensuing weaponization process might not be detectable until Iran tested its
nuclear device underground or otherwise revealed its acquisition of nuclear
weapons,” the report said.

The report said Iran, with known enrichment facilities in Fordow and
Natanz, could develop a weapons-grade uranium capability that would avoid
IAEA detection. The institute said such an Iranian “critical capability”
could achieved in mid-2014.

“In this case, Iran could produce one SQ [significant quantity] in as
little as approximately 1.0-1.6 months, if it uses all its near 20 percent
LEU hexafluoride stockpile,” the report, titled “Iranian Breakout Estimates,
Updated September 2013,” said. “Using only 3.5 percent LEU, Iran would need
at least 1.9 to 2.2 months and could make approximately 4 SQs of WGU
[weapons-grade uranium] using all its existing 3.5 percent LEU stockpile.”

  ‘Breakout time’: Report details how Iran could achieve undetectable nuclear capability, David Albright, Fordow, IAEA, Intstitute for Science and International Security, Natanz, Sen. Mark Kirk