Special to WorldTribune.com

WASHINGTON — The Saudi opposition has reported that Crown Prince
Nayef bin Abdul Aziz was seriously ill.

The opposition Institute for Gulf Affairs said Nayef, 78, might have
suffered a stroke in February. The Washington-based institute, which
represents the Shi’ite opposition in Saudi Arabia, asserted that Nayef was
flown to Morocco for recuperation.

“Nayef, the presumptive heir to the Saudi throne, left the kingdom last Thursday [March 1] on a tightly guarded trip billed by the royal court as a ‘private vacation,’ ” the institute said. “The trip however is believed by the Institute for Gulf Affairs to have been prompted by a critical health emergency, speculated by some to have been a severe stroke.”

In a report on March 6 by analyst Joshua Jacobs, the institute said
Nayef’s stroke has again raised the issue of Saudi succession. In 2011, Nayef succeeded his brother, the late Sultan Bin Abdul Aziz, as crown prince and was deemed the most powerful man in the kingdom. King Abdullah, believed to be 95, is said to be no longer working on a daily basis.

“Nayef is believed to be convalescing in Tangier, Morocco with his two
sons and entourage, while preparing to travel to the United States for
urgent medical care,” the report, titled “Saudi Crown Prince Serious Illness
Complicates Succession Matters Again,” said.

“The prince is no stranger to
poor health, having struggled with leukemia and borderline obesity for much
of the past few years.”

The institute has been regarded as a credible source for news in Saudi
Arabia. On March 1, the institute confirmed reports by the Shi’ite
opposition of an explosion of Saudi Arabia’s main oil export pipeline.

The Saudi response to Nayef’s purported stroke was similar to that of
his predecessor. Sultan was also shuttled to Morocco and the United States
for treatment as he struggled with cancer of the intestines and what the
institute termed an “unknown degenerative mental disease.” The king has also
used Morocco to recuperate.

The report said Nayef’s illness could bode ill for Saudi Arabia’s
Shi’ite community. The institute said it obtained correspondence in which
Nayef vetoed a crackdown on the Shi’ites in the Eastern Province. The
crackdown had been proposed by Saudi intelligence chief Prince Muqrin bin
Abdul Aziz.

“The letters discuss how a situation involving Shia instigation in the
Eastern Province should be handled,” the report said. “In the exchange
Muqrin argued for a much stronger and harsher approach, but was vetoed by
Nayef. While an isolated example, it may point to a pragmatism that would
become more apparent upon his assumption of the throne.”

The report said Nayef’s death or incapacitation would plunge the Saudi
royal family into a crisis. The only son left of Saudi founder Abdul Aziz is
Defense Minister Prince Salman, who is 77 and also said to be ill.

“After Nayef there are no clear consensus candidates, and thus the
possibility of a factional battle for power becomes more plausible,” the
report said.

  78, Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz, Institute for Gulf Affairs, King Abdullah, Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz, Report: Heir to Saudi throne, seeking ‘urgent medical care’ in U.S., Shi’ite community, suffered stroke in February