ABU DHABI — The Gulf states, bracing for threats
from Iran and Iraq, have sharply increased defense spending.
The Gulf Research Center reported that the six Gulf Cooperation Council states have significantly hiked
spending on defense and security in 2006, signing 13 deals worth $35 billion. The center said 2007 was likely to be a turbulent year.
"The Gulf region, which has not enjoyed security and stability for
decades, is currently passing through a danger-laden historical
turning-point," GRC chairman Abdulaziz Sager said.
In a conference on Thursday in Dubai, the GRC reported a significant
increase in defense spending and procurement of weapons in 2006. Most of the
major weapons deal were comprised of aircraft and related sales to Saudi
Arabia.
"The GCC countries signed 13 deals worth $35 billion, most of them with
Western countries," Mustafa Alani, director of the center's Security and
Terrorism Program, said.
Alani did not specify the increase in defense spending in 2006 as
compared to the previous year, but other analysts said the rise exceeded 25
percent. He said Iran's nuclear program could spark a regional arms race.
"It is certain that 2007 will inherit most of the security problems that
engulfed the Gulf region last year," Alani said.
Alani said Teheran was preparing for a U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear
installations, which he said would probably not take place in 2007. He said
Iran was expected to block the Straits of Hormuz, the route for 40 percent
of global oil.
"Iran will not have defense or deterrence capabilities in the event of
an American attack," Alani said. "It only has limited retaliation
capabilities."
Citing the Saudi campaign against Al Qaida, Alani said 2006 saw a
decline in insurgency activities in GCC countries. But he cited the civil
war in Iraq, which neighbors such GCC states as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
For his part, Sager did not rule out a U.S.-led war against Iran. He
said the Iranian nuclear
program could lead to escalation and explosion.
"The worst possible scenario in this crisis is the breakout of an armed
confrontation between Washington and Teheran, or an Israeli strike on the
Iranian nuclear installations in coordination with the American
administration," Sager said. "Concern emanates from the fact that any
military confrontation will have serious security ramifications for the
region, in addition to effects on the environment and health that might
result from the destruction of the nuclear installations."
