A welcomed distraction and oil price hike, both sponsored by Iran,
Bennington, VT — A wildfire of violence could sweep round the frontiers of Israel and could then spread elsewhere in the volatile Middle East. The tinderbox of Gaza has already ignited only to see the flames suddenly and unexpectedly jump to Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. In the meantime the shadow of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program goes unchecked with Western diplomatic initiatives smoke — screened by the pressing need to respond to this fresh political crisis.
Consider the recent timeline. But before judging the obvious, namely the Hizbullah terrorist organization focused attacks on northern Israel, the taking of Israeli prisoners, and the swift Israeli military counterstrikes which have mesmerized the media and foreign ministries, seek the presumably hidden hand. Pending diplomatic pressures on Iran over its proscribed nuclear program may get sidetracked by this fresh round of violence.
Hizbullah, the “Army of God” terrorist group remains still deeply rooted in southern Lebanon facing Israel. While Hizbullah’s primary benefactor Syria was forced out of Lebanon by United States and French pressures after nearly a thirty year military occupation, the terrorists still have a formidable armed network. Rooted largely among the poor Shiite Muslims and harboring a particular animus towards both Israel and the fragile but democratic Lebanese government, Hizbullah remains a cat’s paw for radical regimes to trigger violence through non-state actors. Iran has been a longtime financial and armed patron reportedly to the tune of $100 million annually.
Just days ago, the five Permanent members of the UN Security Council, meeting in Paris was thwarted by Teheran’s lack of political cooperation in ceasing its nuclear research. A July deadline for Iran to come clean on its nuclear program again faces the graven political calculus of the UN Security Council, namely a near certain veto by Communist China and Russia of any meaningful enforcement resolutions.
The unexpected flare up on Israel’s northern frontier appears to this writer a classic case of Islamic Iran given its Lebanese proxy the command “Cry Havoc, and let slip the dogs of war,” precisely to change the venue the terms and the template through igniting a new front which in turn gives Teheran further political cover through which to doggedly pursue its nuclear aims.
Iran feels reasonably confident with jumping petroleum prices ($76 a barrel) and some $60 billion in cash reserves, that it can afford should we say a little instability in both the OPEC markets as well as the region. Iran’s reckless President Mahmoud Ahmadi Nejad may be betting that with a new Mid East flashpoint, attention to Iran’s nuclear program will be deflected or deferred.
Just last year Lebanon’s sovereignty was again assaulted by the Syria’s hidden hand the murder of former Lebanese Premier Rafik Hariri. Only strong American and French pressures through the United Nations finally forced Syria out of Lebanon, ending a nearly thirty year long occupation.
Now Lebanon’s fragile democracy is again under assault by Hizbullah armed provocations which invite Israel’s military reactions. Little Lebanon is tragically caught in the middle. A fledging restored Mid East democracy, could be returned into a cycle of religious and political violence which once plagued this land.
The current G8 Summit in St. Petersburg Russia was set to discuss North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs among other things. Fast flowing and fluid political crisis has overwhelmed foreign policy briefing teams and knocked the players off message on key issues. President George W. Bush and his British, French and German counterparts must remain laser focused on resolving the Iranian nuclear threat and not be blindsided by Hizbullah’s actions. The Summit in Russia reminds all the players that the unforeseen can often become the norm. It must however not become the rule.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com. |
