Answering North Korean fireworks: How about missile defense?
Bennington, VT — North Korea test-fired seven missiles on the Fourth of July. But the tests which were aimed at intimidating neighbors and gaining an ill-conceived form of “respect” may have gone off like the proverbial wet firecracker — they sputtered, fell into the Sea of Japan, but then sent political shockwaves to mobilize a rare show of international solidarity and outrage which could signal a ballistic political blunder for the rogue regime in Pyongyang.
The looming tests of a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile were in the offing for weeks. The United States, Japan and the Europeans all warned North Korea not to go ahead with the deliberately provocative launch. Only last week both President George W. Bush and his Japanese counterpart Junichiro Koizumi stressed the need for a test moratorium. So when North Korea’s mercurial dictator Kim Jong-il launched — not only the long range Taepondong 2 which can theoretically reach the USA, but six short and medium range rockets as well, the gauntlet was thrown down.
Washington must not overreact. Indeed President Bush stated that the missile tests only serve to further isolate North Korea. The timing to coincide with the U.S. Fourth of July holiday was hardly coincidental but a blunt declaration — Pyongyang wants to talk one on one with Washington. The fact that the missile tests were failures with pieces falling into the Sea of Japan or blowing up after launch, still does not diminish the geopolitical reverberations sent throughout East Asia.
So what to do? The United Nations Security Council met swiftly in urgent session with rare resolve to condemn these provocative launches. But don’t expect any more than a slap on the wrist to the quaintly titled Democratic People’s Republic of Korea — at least for now. Neither Russia nor particularly the People’s Republic of China, North Korea’s longtime political and economic patron is quite ready to ditch the comrades north of the DMZ.
As the column has often stated, North Korea wishes to force “recognition” from the U.S., “respect” from Japan and political “space” to act as a free agent from China. While Beijing is not likely to support serious sanctions against Pyongyang’s communists, the Chinese must realize that North Korea remains a reckless ally.
The moribund Six Party Talks, a multilateral framework with the United States, Japan, Russia, People’s China and both North and South Korea offers the most realistic mechanism to negotiate with the Pyongyang communists over missile and nuclear issues. Why? Though North Korea demands one on one talks with Washington, the reality is that such bilateral talks would quickly bog down on a host of issues — many arising from the end of the Korean conflict in 1953! We would be entering an endless negotiating maze with little tangible results.
The Six Party talks allow a transparent and effective method to talk with the secretive North, with witnesses if you will, so that breakdowns or impasses are not then viewed (as they inevitably would be) as the fault of the U.S. Washington spreads the political risk by this multilateral diplomatic forum rather than the far riskier one on one.
So what are the lessons learned so far? First and foremost, if North Korea can do something, they probably will! For now Pyongyang’s military technology such as missiles or deploying nuclear weapons is limited by scientific capability, not political prudence.
The USA and Japan should continue to work on anti-missile defenses — a defensive space shield to guard precisely against such actions by a rogue regime such as North Korea or Islamic Iran. Given their military technology, neither North Korea nor Iran has the capacity to simultaneously fire as phalanx of rockets at the U.S. as could the former Soviet Union.
Japan which remains on the short list of North Korea’s targets, should turn the political and financial screws on Pyongyang. For a long time, Japan has allowed “remittances” and other cash flows from North Korean front groups inside Japan, to send money to Kim’s communists.
South Korea’s current leftist government has sadly and ironically become the DPRK’s enabler, trying to buy peace at any price on the divided Korean peninsula. Call it a rich and frightened uncle sending succor and support to the communist cousins in the North. Call it blackmail or the fear of what’s called a “regime implosion or hard landing,” but the bottom line remains the same, political acquiescence to the North’s brutal dictatorship and economic subsidy of Kim Jong-il’s regime. All this to the backdrop of a defense treaty with Washington supported by 35,000 American troops.
People’s China, once described by Chairman Mao in the 1950’s as having a “relationship as close as lips and teeth” to North Korea, must realize that in the 2000’s with comrades like these there a real destabilizing threat to Mainland China’s own economic prosperity and the upcoming Beijing Olympics in 2008.
All the regional players, especially Japan and South Korea, should strive to defuse this emerging threat before it’s really too late.
John J. Metzler is a U.N. correspondent covering diplomatic and defense
issues. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com. |
