To the north, in the Himalayan kingdom of Nepal a Maoist insurgency claims the hinterland, with allies among above ground disaffected youth and professionals. New Delhi [as Washington] has got itself crosswise. The King’s suspension of parliament — the mess Nepal had under incredibly corrupt caste-ridden politics could hardly be called democracy — led India to threaten sanctions. The King’s complaint the politicians had not subdued the Maoists was valid. And when India [and the U.S.] cut off military aid, the King turned to neighboring Beijing. Now there is a stand-off with China backing the King foursquare. But does anyone believe China wouldn’t make a deal with the Maoists [who denounce Beijing as “revisionist” sellouts] if and when they gain control?

The Nepalese terrai [lowlands] is not only a geographical extension of North India but the Maoists maintain strong connections with Indian Naxalites, nihilist, traditional dacoit and ideologic guerrillas who ostensibly broke away from the Bengal Communists during a peasant uprising in 1957. [Singh depends on the Bengalis for his parliamentary majority.] Naxalite strength has grown since 2003 from nine Indian states comprising 55 districts to 13 states and 170 districts. Singh’s government benignly endorsed Andhra Pradesh state government’s failed two-year negotiations after they came close to assassinating the state’s chief minister. The negotiations failed — leaving the rebels with a propaganda victory, stronger than ever, and confusion about federal policy.

In the east, Singh recently reinforced the 2500-mile border with Bangladesh, a large part marked by rivers constantly changing course. Relations with Dhaka have reached a new nadir with repeated clashes, India charges Dakha with granting sanctuary and smuggling arms to half a dozen rebel ethnic groups demanding independence or autonomy in its exposed Northeast. Refugees from Bangladesh’s Hindu and tribal minorities add to the misery of Calcutta. Bangladesh’s domestic scene is close to civil war between growing Islamicists [sheltered by the present government] and its traditional secularist leadership. Meanwhile, China has made significant inroads in its economy.

Looking south, where India was involved in the origins of the bloody Tamil insurgency and then was unable to effectively intervene militarily to end it, the Norwegian “do-gooders” have about run out their negotiating string. A new government headed by a Sinhalese radical nationalist was elected with Tamil Tiger guerrillas’ complicity. A trucebreakdown is not an academic problem for New Delhi: It’s no secret Sri Lankan Tamil radicals aim at creating an independent country uniting with 70 million of their ethnic brethren in Indian Tamilnadu state. The insurgency enjoys moral, financial, and logistic support in South India and from political leaders in regional parties there which New Delhi has not effectively squelched due to regional politics in Chennai [Madras].

In the west, India and Pakistan appear to be making slow progress through “confidence building measures” in reinforcing their present “peace initiative”.: But no Kashmir solution is in sight, source of much of the friction producing three and half wars in the half century since independence between the Siamese twins birthed from British India. The Frankenstein earlier Islamabad regimes created with Pakistan-based guerrilla infiltrators against the half million Indian Kashmir security forces has taken on a life of its own, inceasingly allied with international Islamicist terrorists against Pres. Gen. Musharraf. Sentiment is also growing for an independent Kashmir — a geopolitical nightmare with its corrupt politicians playing India, Pakistan, and China against each other in a strategic corner of the world.

True, India is spending almost 8 percent of its GDP or more than $23 billion annually on the military — mostly on imported weaponry and its nuclear stockpile.. But these expenditures are directed toward a strategy of big power hegemony which New Delhi has long coveted in South Asia. But aircraft carrier battle groups nor nukes counter current and growing low intensity conflicts inside India and among its immediate neighbors. That needs special operations training — not all that different from the war American forces now find they are fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.

India is going through one of those periods of a lovefest with China. Negotiations are on again for the intractable Himalayan border problem which brought a devastating war for India’s image 40 years ago. But China’s Tibet buildup — including nuclear-clad missiles — continues unabated. New inroads on territory claimed by India’s Himalayan protectorate, Bhutan, could be an indicator of Beijing’s real intentions.

Indian strategy looks from the outside as naked as those Moslem and Hindu holymen who take their clothes off in their religious ecstasy and turn mendicant.

Sol W. Sanders, (solsanders@comcast.net), is an Asian specialist with more than 25 years in the region, and a former correspondent for Business Week, U.S. News & World Report and United Press International. He writes weekly for World Tribune.com.